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The Western Balkans is a mountainous region and
a hotspot of climate change. Over the past decades,
warming has accelerated, and throughout the 21st
century it is projected to be higher than the world
average. The observed changes in precipitation over
the past few decades are less clear, but almost all
climate models agree the countries within the region
will experience a significant decrease in precipitation
within the 21st century, accompanied by an increase
in drought conditions and therefore water availability.
Annual flow reductions in the regions’ rivers of up
to 15% are projected for 2°C warming above pre-
industrial levels, and by up to 45 per cent in a 4°C
world. Overall, climatic extremes are projected
to become more common, including a significant
increase in the number of extreme heat events. Heavier
precipitation events are expected in the winter months,
whilst summers are projected to become even drier.
Many of the impacts will be manifested in the
mountain regions and their downstream areas.
Mountain-specific climate hazards include reduced
snow cover (up to 50 days less by 2050 across the
Dinaric Arc); increasing occurrence of winter and
spring flooding from intense precipitation and
accelerated snowmelt; increases in the frequency
and intensity of wildfires; heavy snow precipitation
and cold extremes; the appearance of new disease
vectors; and decreasing annual river discharge and
low flow periods. Many of these impacts are not
only a future issue, but also a present-day concern.
The catastrophic flooding in Serbia and Bosnia
and Herzegovina in 2014, and regularly occurring
Executive summary
extreme heat events and wildfires across the region
are some recent examples.
In the absence of adequate adaptation measures, key
risks for the region arising from these hazards include
economic and livelihood losses, increased mortality
and morbidity, decreased public safety, impaired
ecosystem functioning and the loss of species, and
decreased energy security through water scarcity.
At present, relatively few sectoral policies or strategies
adequately integrate goals and measures related to
climate change adaptation, despite these sectors
being highly exposed to and vulnerable to climate
change. Furthermore, mountainous areas are rarely
taken into account.
Many of the key risks arising from climate hazards in
mountainous regions identified in this assessment cut
across several sectors. This assessment has analysed
these existing sectoral policies to the extent to which
can they address the most pressing climate change-
related risks, and whether they generate positive effects
for the socio-economic system and local communities.
Gaps exist for most of the key climate risks identified.
The most common gaps include inadequate policy
coverage at different scales (e.g. regional, national and
local); a lack of institutional coordination (including
mechanisms) across sectors; a lack of or limited vertical
integration from the EU to local administrations;
and limited or low financial capacities to finance
adaptation measures. In some cases, no policies exist
to address existing or future risks.
Wildfire on the outskirts of Dubrovnik, Croatia