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Pre event:
prevalence of smallpox is zero
Peri event: prevalence of smallpox is low
•
Approaches to improving predictive
value positive : implications for result use
(rule in, and institution of vaccination
campaign vs. rule out)
–
Use more than 1 test (different targets)
–
Use tests without common sources of false
positives
Post event
•
Need to assess what needs for testing
will be:
–
One scenario: greatest needs in beginning,
and near end of smallpox re-eradication
•
May need to test more “low suspicion
samples”
–
Sensitivity vs. specificity