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Economic migration, as well as
urbanisation, are resulting in significant
depopulation in rural areas in some
countries, and to such an extent that
some states are seeing a significant
national decline in population. The
causes of Syria's decline are obvious,
but we are also seeing very significant
population declines in many countries
in Eastern Europe, the Caribbean and
Pacific driven largely by migration.
However, perhaps the bigger global
change and impact on economic
sustainability and real estate, is the
declining birth rate in many larger
developed countries. The extent of
this significant drop has the potential
to stall long-term global economic
growth and cause major issues in
countries with low birth rates. To be at
a sustainable level a country typically
needs two children per woman. Of
the G7 economies three countries are
significantly below this level – Germany,
Italy and Japan all at 1.4. Canada is
only at 1.6 whilst the other three G7
economies do have more sustainable
levels but are in gradual decline – UK
(1.9), U.S. (1.9) and France (2.1).
The impact on the Global economy
is reinforced in table 3 which shows
population growth for G7 countries.
This shows that Japan, Germany
and Italy are all showing declining
populations. Given the strong
correlation of population with economic
growth this is indeed concerning.
There are various reasons why
birth-rates drive population decline.
These are widely debated and range
from cultural, economic and social
perspectives.
Syria
Cook Islands
Moldova
Saint Pierre & ...
Bulgaria
Estonia
Puerto Rico
Ukraine
Latvia
Virgin Islands
South Africa
Serbia
Montenegro
Micronesia
American-Samoa
Lithuania
Saint VIncent & ...
Romania
Slovenia
Hungary
0
2.5
5
7.5
10
Monaco
Japan
Andorra
South Korea
Singapore
Slovenia
Taiwan
Germany
San Marino
Greece
Italy
Macau
Bosnia and
Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Serbia
Romania
Hungary
Italy
Portugal
Austria
5
6
7
8
9
10
Total Population (thousands)
2015
2020
Change
World
7,324,782
7,716,749
5.35%
G7 Countries
399,349
400,819
0.37%
Canada
35, 871
37,612
4.85%
France
64,983
66,570
2.44%
Germany
82,562
81,881
-0.82%
Italy
61,142
61,386
0.40%
Japan
126,818
125,382
-1.13%
United Kingdom
63,844
65,600
2.75%
United States
325,128
337,983
3.95%
ON THE DECLINE:
OUR WORLD IN DATA
Graph 1:
Annual percentage decline in population
Graph 2:
Lowest birth rates per 1,000 people by country globally
Table 3:
Population growth 2015-20 (Source: United Nations)
The Federal Statistics
Office expects that
Germany will have 8 to 13
million fewer inhabitants
by 2060.
36 The Occupier Edge