259 / 346
GAZETTE
NOVEMBER 1983
The Development of a Scientific Theory.
attempted to show odds of 12 million to 1 against any
couple other than the accused having committed the
robbery. He failed dismally. Using the formal analytical
approach of science he might have simply gathered the
available facts as a first step. These facts would then be
analysed conceptually for the purpose of setting up a
number of hypotheses for testing. An example would be
"if witnesses were present then they would probably
identify directly" or "if the accused carried out the
robbery then they would probably be in possession of the
loot". In this way, via a series of hypotheses the prosecu-
tion/defence could scientifically analyse the probabilities
of the case before the hearing and form conclusions based
on the facts. The case would then rest on the facts being
presented as concepts in a tested hypothesis. There would
be no need for explanation as to the procedure being
adopted, as the presentation of the case would be straight-
forward, sensible and logical since it rests on the relevant
facts presented in a tightly knit manner.
It is apparent on this analysis that there is no future for
probability theory being applied to all the evidence in any
case as it would give too many opportunities for
successful challenge.
The expert witness may attempt to bolster his evidence
251