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GAZETTE
NOVEMBER 1983
Acomplete
pension
service
of fact with odds against these facts occurring. Although
the facts may not be open to challenge he may imperil his
evidence by giving the probabilistic odds. One has only to
consider the small size of our population to realise that
odds of 2 million to 1 are meaningless in a male
population of less than 2 million. It would be a poor
advocate who could not attack the basis of a probabilistic
statement and if the expert witness is thrown then the facts
themselves may be put in question.
The law has never defined "probability". In
mens rea,
we can identify graduated levels of intent rising from the
defendant knowing the result of his action would be
"possible", or "probable" or "certain" which are all
simply different levels of probability in legal terms. The
methods of mathematics might better serve the law in
providing a more accurate framework for analysis
through the routine testing of hypotheses. In this way we
could aspire to legal probability being assisted by the
methods adopted by science to the greater understanding
of all concerned. •
• Mr. O'Connor is presently reading for the Bar in King's Inns.
(Footnotes)
1. [ 1947] 2 All ER 372 at p.373.
2. Ibid, at p. 374.
3. [1972] 1 All ER 1096 (Ch.D.) and [1974] 1 All ER 551.
4. A. J. Ayer
Probability and Evidence.
Part 1. Chapters 2 and 3.
5. H. Bracton
Laws and Customs of England.
6. Denning, M. R.
What next in the Ixtw?
at p.5.
7.
People -v- Collins
[ 1968] 438p 2d. 33.
8.
D.P.P. -v- Kinlan
[1978] Central Criminal Court — unreported.
9. D. V. Lindley "Probability and law".
The Statistican
Volume 26 No.
3.
10. M. Stuart, "Statistics and Probabilities as legal evidence"
Dublin
University
I
MW Journal (1981) at p. 54.
11. A. J. Cohen.
The Probable and the Provable
(1977).
12. Sir R. Eggleston
Evidence, Proof and Probability
(197K); see also J. D.
Jackson, "Probability and Mathematics in Court Eact-Einding"
Northern Ireland Legal Quarterly.
Vol. 31, No. 3 Autumn 1980,
p.239.
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