82 |
Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023
and commercial. For this reason the utility of the model is mainly proved in the stress
cases where it is crucial to determine whether there is a possibility of overcoming a
supply disruption or supply minimisation, under high demand conditions, or this
might be impossible, in one or more areas, because of lack of adequate transporta-
tion capacity.
7.2 Scenarios
In order to perform the above analysis a certain number of cases were defined.
For the
Supply & Demand Analysis
, the following demand cases have been defined:
\\
Design Case (DC). In this case the daily demand in every country is equal to the
daily demand used for the design of infrastructures according to the national
provisions. This is the highest possible demand case.
\\
Average day: In this case the demand in every country is equal to the average
daily demand of the full year or to the average daily demand of the winter period
only (AW)
\\
One or 14 day Uniform Risk (UR) in Southern Corridor Region, with winter
average conditions in the rest of the EU. This is further split in two cases. In the
first, the Uniform Risk conditions are experienced by the Central–Eastern coun-
tries, in the second by the Mediterranean zone (CEE UR / AW, Mediterranean
UR / AW). The Uniform risk conditions are those expected to be statistically
encountered once in every 20 years. Their difference with the Design case
conditions consists in that in a few countries the demand used for the design of
infrastructures corresponds to more severe conditions (e. g. the ones expected
to be encountered once in every 50 years). The decision to simulate different
EU areas under different climatic conditions has as underlying assumption a
certain level of simultaneity driven by geographic location.
The EU’s countries have been split in the two climatic zones as follows:
Mediterranean: CY, GR, IT, ES & PT
Central-Eastern: PL, CZ, SK, AT, HU, SI, HR, RS, BH, RO, BG, MK
\\
14 day Uniform Risk in whole of the EU (UR)
The goal of the analysis is an assessment of whether the infrastructure is capable to
serve the demand.
For the
Network Resilience Analysis
, the impact of different disruption scenarios on
the gas supply has been investigated. For this purpose, and taking into account
Regional specificities, a disruption of the Ukrainian (UA) route and a minimization
of the use of LNG, were simulated.
As a third step, the
Supply Source Dependencies
of each SC country are analysed.
This is crucial, not only in terms of security of supply, but also in terms of a function-
ing competition within the market, to gain information on this issue as a basis for
further development of the gas transmission system within Europe towards an in-
creased overall efficiency and maintaining energy prices within a reasonable range.
