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Southern Corridor GRIP 2014–2023
Image courtesy of Plinovodi
7.3.2 UKRAINE DISRUPTION
7.3.2.1 CEE Region Uniform Risk demand,
other Average Winter Demand
This scenario has been analysed considering the special relevance for the Regional
context of such an occurrence.
The supply situation in the Region under Ukraine disruption and assuming Uniform
Risk demand for the CEE Region is not sufficient. In the 2014 FID case, Bulgaria,
Hungary, and Romania face shortages, as the demand of these countries exceeds
the supply. In the 2018 FID case only Hungary and Romania face shortages, since
Bulgaria benefits from the implementation of the South Stream. Serbia also benefits
from this project. On the other hand the resilience is reduced in Croatia, due to the
decrease of national production that cannot be compensated through the supply
from Hungary. The situation is improved, for Croatia, with the implementation of the
PCI projects as these involve the LNG terminal in Krk Island.
In the 2018 non-FID case, the shortage of Hungary disappears, although the
resilience remains very low. Romania still has a small shortage because there is no
dedicated capacity from South Stream towards Romania.
Considering the 2023 FID, non-FID and FID+PCI cases it is visible that the supply
situation is sufficient in case of realization of the PCI projects.
The TAP, IGB and IAP projects have no impact on Hungary, and Romania as they
do not change the corresponding remaining flexibilities.
