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EuroWire – September 2007

43

The European surplus was smaller, at $117 billion. But China’s

exports to Europe were rising at a rate of more than 32%, well

above the 18% growth rate in imports to China from Europe.

The Chinese surplus with the US is now 62% higher than it was

only two years ago, but the surplus with Europe is up 136%.

One explanation is that the US dollar lost more than 7% of its

value against the Chinese yuan over that period, during which

the euro gained against the yuan. As China allowed its currency

to appreciate gradually against the dollar, traders sent the euro

up against the dollar at a faster rate.

China’s trade deficit with the rest of the world, exclusive of

Europe and the US, is now at $54 billion. It has been shrinking

after hitting a peak of $86 billion early last year.

An opening – and a drama –

at the International Monetary Fund

Citing family obligations, Rodrigo de Rato, the managing

director of the International Monetary Fund, is giving up

his post at the Washington-based IMF two years early.

Mr de Rato, a former Spanish minister of the economy, said he

will remain as head of the fund only through the upcoming

World Bank-IMF annual meetings at the end of the year. As

leader of the agency since 2004 he helped oversee more than

$50 billion of debt reduction for poor nations. By tradition,

European Union finance officials select the head of the

IMF, while the US names the president of the World Bank.

But that balance may be about to be disturbed. As Krissah

Williams of the

Washington Post

(28

th

June) noted: “Because

European officials took the lead in ousting former World Bank

President Paul Wolfowitz this spring, questions remain regarding

the role the United States will play in choosing a successor to

Mr de Rato.”

The major question is, of course, whether lingering resentment

over the Wolfowitz episode will move US President Bush to

challenge Europe’s choice for the IMF. Mr Bush fought hard to

keep Mr Wolfowitz, his appointee, at the World Bank. When it

became clear that this was not to be, there was a groundswell

of support for the interim appointment of Britain’s departing

prime minister Tony Blair. Mr Blair, a staunch Bush ally at

considerable cost to his own political legacy, appeared to have

been the ideal choice for eleventh president of the World Bank,

and his selection a graceful and generous gesture on the part of

Mr Bush. But the American president did not yield ‘the US seat.’

Mr Bush named former US trade envoy Robert B Zoellick to the

prestigious and influential post.

Manufacturing

An expanding US manufacturing sector

expects more of the same

The Institute for Supply Management (Tempe, Arizona) reported

on 2

nd

July that manufacturing in the US unexpectedly grew in

June at the fastest pace in 14 months. The ISM factory index,

which rose to 56 from 55 for May, is a widely watched indicator

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