Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017– Executive Summary |
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3 The future role of gas:
several paths to achieving
the EU targets
TYNDP looks twenty years ahead. Performing the
TYNDP assessment in a meaningful way requires the
definition of scenarios that cover the reasonable scope
of the gas and energy sector evolution. This requires an
open-minded approach to the significant changes that
the European energy sector will undergo in the coming
decades to ensure the energy transition, taking into
consideration the ambitious European climate and ener-
gy targets set for 2030 and beyond.
For this fifth edition of TYNDP ENTSOG developed four demand scenarios, among
which three achieve the EU 2030 energy and climate targets, taking differentiated
paths towards these targets. To ensure a meaningful TYNDP, it is fundamental that
the assessment of infrastructure needs and of projects is handled for all three of the
on-target scenarios. The demand level for the off-target scenario falls within the
range of the other scenarios and has not been covered in the assessment.
To develop the scenarios, ENTSOG first elaborated storylines based on a number of
parameters, ranging from general parameters such as economic conditions and
achievement of the EU climate targets, to more specific factors influencing the role
of gas in the heating, power and transport sectors.
Regarding the power sector, ENTSOG has strived to align as much as possible the
scenarios with the Visions developed by ENTSO-E for the electricity TYNDP 2016.
For each scenario, based on the Vision best matching in terms of storyline, ENTSOG
used the electricity demand, generation capacities and generation mix from the
ENTSO-E TYNDP scenario development process, as a basis for the annual gas
demand in the power sector. This alignment further allows the TYNDP 2017 scenar-
ios to reflect an overall view of the power sector, not only on gas-fired, but also on
coal-fired and renewable generation. For their respective TYNDPs 2018, ENTSOG
and ENTSO-E have committed to align even further. The related scenario develop-
ment process, which has been launched in Spring 2016, will be fully common, in
accordance with the consistent and interlinked model the ENTSOs have to deliver
under Art. 11(8) of Regulation (EU) No. 347/2013.
Scenarios cover both the annual and peak demand perspectives. Indeed the nation-
al standards, set in regard to the peak demand which has to be secured, impose that
gas operators design their infrastructure accordingly. Gas demand is highly temper-
ature dependent, the massive development of generation from intermittent renewa-
bles will add even more volatility to the gas demand in the future.