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Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2017– Executive Summary |
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In terms of CO ² emission reductions:
apart from Slow Progression, where the
displacement of coal by gas does not materialise, all scenarios reach the objective
of 40% reduction compared to the 1990 level. This is a result of the increasing
role of renewable generation supported by low-carbon natural gas-fired generation
as well as the energy efficiency gains.
These results also reflect the foreseen increase of biomethane production in the
European gas supply.
The TYNDP demand scenarios indicate different possible paths for the overall gas
demand, where achieving the European energy and climate 2030 targets could
either be met with a continued decrease or a rebound of the demand. All four
scenarios are analysed in detail in the Demand chapter. To ensure its meaningful-
ness, the TYNDP assessment is performed on the three on-target scenarios, cover-
ing a reasonable and possible range of future gas demand.
0
1,000
500
1,500
2,000
2,500
1990
Slow
Progression
Blue
Transition
Green
Evolution
EU Green
Revolution
CO
2
Emission (mt/y)
21% 41% 42% 46%
mt/y
Figure 3.4:
CO ² emissions reduction by 2030 for the overall
power and final gas demand sectors
0
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2005
Slow
Progression
2030
Blue
Transition
2030
Green
Evolution
2030
EU Green
Revolution
2030
Power demand –
coal displacement by gas
Power demand – without
coal displacement by gas
Final Demand
Historic gas demand
21%
TWh/y
27% 31%
18%
Figure 3.3:
Energy efficiency gains by 2030