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Unpredictable risks

Allowance must also be made for unpredictable

risk factors. Over and above conflicting interests,

some scenarios suggest that drilling for oil and gas

could seriously affect the sea level and, worse, trig-

ger earthquakes in this seismically active region.

Furthermore, however clean modern oil produc-

tion may be, it involves the risk of accidents caus-

ing serious pollution, typically oil spills during

transportation. Nor can it completely avoid con-

tinuous emissions during operation. Pollution

pays no attention to borders, and pollutants carried

over large distances by tributaries aggravate already

acute local pollution downstream. Environmental

pollution has transboundary effects that need to be

tackled multilaterally.

At another level, although scientific models of the ef-

fects of rising temperatures are improving, it is not

yet possible to predict exactly what will happen when

nature adapts to changing climatic conditions.

The need for multilateral solutions

Ongoing disputes and disagreements over the man-

agement of natural resources shared by two or more

states can deepen divides and lead to hostilities. But

common problems regarding the use of natural re-

sources may also bring people together in a posi-

tive way. Communities and nations can build mu-

tual confidence through joint efforts to improve the

state and management of nature. Environmental

cooperation can be an important way of preventing

conflicts and promoting peace between commu-

nities. Furthermore the environment is a suitable

topic to focus people’s attention, in particular when

they are personally affected. Raising people’s aware-

ness of the stakes may be a way of promoting more

active participation in political life, and, ultimately

democracy and shared economic prosperity.

By signing and ratifying the Framework Conven-

tion on the Protection of the Marine Environment

of the Caspian Sea (Tehran Convention) the sig-

natories – all five bordering states– signalled that

they are willing to search for common strategies to

protect the Caspian environment. Having agreed in

principle on common action towards the control of

activities impacting the environment they made a

step towards stability in the region.