TPT November 2011

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November 2011 77 ›
Global Marketplace
Other metals . . .
› The Canadian integrated mining company HudBay Minerals
(Toronto) said it has agreed to sell its Fenix ferro-nickel operation
in Guatemala to Russia’s Solway Investment Group for US$170mn.
The transaction, expected to close before the New Year, gains for
Solway a fallow (since 1980) brownfield nickel laterite mine and a
processing plant. Capacity of the plant, now 25 million pounds per
year, is to be raised to 50 million ppy.
As reported by Mineweb (8 August), Fenix is believed to have 41.4
million metric tons of mineral reserves. Output over the 30-year
projected life of the operation is estimated at 1.3 billion pounds of
nickel. Solway, which has its headquarters in Cyprus, also operates
the Pobugsky ferro-nickel plant in Ukraine; plans to build a $3bn
nickel smelter in Indonesia; and has invested in polymetallic projects
in Peru and Laos as well as in Russia.
The global economy
The Organisation for Economic Co-
operation and Development sees weak
growth ahead but no return to ‘the great
recession’
While economic growth in most of the developed world is set to
remain limp through the end of 2011, “a downturn of the magnitude
of 2008 and 2009 is not foreseen.” This is the view expressed by
the Organisation for Economic Cooperation in its latest outlook,
published 8 September. The Paris-based OECD projected growth in
the Group of 7 economies excluding Japan of less than one percent
at annualised rates on average in the second half of this year.
In Japan, growth was less negative than foreseen in the immediate
aftermath of the March earthquake and nuclear disaster, the OECD
said. But activity in China slowed in the course of the first half and
manufacturing production there weakened.
For the three largest euro zone countries – Germany, France,
Italy – the growth forecast was for 1.4 per cent in the third quarter
and negative 0.4 per cent in the last three months of the year. The
international research group predicted an expansion in the US of 1.1
per cent in the third quarter and 0.4 per cent in the fourth.
Writing from London in the International Herald Tribune, Matthew
Saltmarsh noted the OECD acknowledgement of “particularly high”
uncertainty surrounding its projections this time. But the report also
said that the unwinding of temporary factors that had dampened
growth in Germany – like the shutdown of nuclear plants – and in
France, such as the phasing-out of car scrapping subsidies, “may
prompt a sharper than projected rebound in activity in the third
quarter.”
In addition, data on the federal budget had been better than expected
the US by autumn, the OECD said.
The OECD report contained a few pieces of advice:
› Official interest rates in most advanced economies should be
kept on hold;
› If in coming months signs emerge of enduring economic
weakness, rates should be lowered where there is scope.
Where there is no scope, other measures could include further
central bank intervention in securities markets, even if that brings
diminishing returns;
› To stop contagion and restore confidence, the governance of
the euro area must be further improved and the capitalisation of
banks in the region strengthened.
The annual competitiveness survey from
Davos shows improvement in many
emerging markets
“Much of the developing world is still seeing relatively strong
growth, despite some risk of overheating, while most advanced
economies continue to experience sluggish recovery, persistent
unemployment, and financial vulnerability, with no clear horizon
for improvement.”
Klaus Schwab, founder and chairman of the World Economic
Forum, was summing up the findings in the forum’s annual
Global Competitiveness Report (GCR), which assesses
countries based on 12 categories including innovation,
infrastructure and the macroeconomic environment. Fittingly,
perhaps, the Geneva-based group known widely and simply as
“Davos” – for the Swiss resort where its A-list invitees gather
every summer – found an exception in a markedly advanced
economy. For the third consecutive year, Switzerland ranked
first in the forum’s survey.
The other results in the GCR, released 7 September, contained
some surprises, but not many. Here, abstracted by the International
Herald Tribune’s Matthew Saltmarsh (See “OECD”, above), are the
main findings:
› The US, which topped the list in 2008, continued its decline, also
for the third year in a row – falling one place to fifth. The weaker
performance was attributed to economic vulnerabilities as well as
“some aspects of the United States’ institutional environment,”
notably low public trust in politicians;
› While Singapore overtook Sweden to claim second position,
Western European countries dominated the survey’s top
10 economies. Behind Sweden, Finland ranked fourth and
Germany sixth, followed by the Netherlands and Denmark.
Britain was 10th, France 18th. (Heavily indebted Greece slid
to 90th place among the 142 major and emerging economies
surveyed);
› China, the highest-placed of the large developing economies,
ranked 26th – up one place from a year earlier. Among the other
major emerging economies, South Africa was 50th, Brazil 53rd , India
56th, and Russia 66th.
› Among major Asian economies, Japan ranked ninth and Hong
Kong 11th. Qatar was the highest-ranked country in the Middle
East, at 14th, followed by Saudi Arabia at 17 th. The United Arab
Emirates was in 27th place.
Dorothy Fabian, Features Editor (USA)