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Climate hazards are the physical events or trends
resulting from climate change that can threaten
society or natural systems. For example, increased
temperatures, extreme precipitation events, glacial
melting and landslides can be climate hazards.
The degree to which areas and policy sectors are
susceptible to damage from hazards is termed their
vulnerability. Vulnerability to climate hazards is
dependent on varied characteristics of the society
or natural system exposed. This includes the
Climate change hazards and trends
presence of key infrastructure, environmental and
socioeconomic factors, as well as governments’ and
peoples’ willingness and capacity to adapt. Hazards
become risks when society is both exposed to the
hazard and is vulnerable to its effects.
There is uncertainty about both observed and
predicted climate change due to insufficient data and
the complex topography of the region, which requires
a high density of long-term hydro-meteorological
measurement stations. This lack of measurements
represents a significant barrier in the development of
adaptation policies.
In the Tropical Andes, projections of future climate
change often appear to exacerbate climate events
already being observed: wetter areas become wetter,
drier areas become drier, leading in turn to more
dramatic precipitation events and more dramatic
droughts (Magrin et al., 2014). In other areas,
projections show that some very dry areas may also
become wetter (Hijmans et al., 2005).
Temperature
Numerous studies confirm that the Tropical Andes
have undergone significant warming in the last century
(Magrin et al., 2014), yet the degree of warming in
different locations differs significantly, partly because
of the rugged landscape and the increase in warming
with increasing elevation. From the information
available, some broad trends have been observed.
Mean warming of about 0.7-1°C was recorded in the
Tropical Andes in the latter half of the 1900s. From
1939 to 2006, the increase was about 0.1°C per decade
(Vuille et al., 2008). The rate of warming accelerated
in later years: from 1980 to 2005 the rate of warming
was about 0.33°C per decade (Barry, 2005). Only two
out of the 20 last years have been below the average
recorded from 1961 to 1990 (Vuille et al., 2008).
However, the increase varies greatly within the region
and at the local level. The highest warming has been
observed in parts of the Colombian Andes (Ruiz et
al., 2008) and in the Central Andes of Peru and the
Altiplano (Valdivia et al., 2013; Vuille, 2013).
Nor Yauyos-Cochas Landscape Reserve, Peru