17 / 84
17
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
One consequence of the unexpected fall in gas demand in recent years and
the recovery in UKCS gas production is that import dependence has declined
since 2013, confounding earlier forecasts of ever-rising dependence.
Maintaining this recent trend of greater self-sufficiency will not be easy
if NBP gas prices remain in the range of 30-35 p/th, given the access of
north-west European markets to lower-cost supply from Qatar, Russia and
the US.
As the current government has recognised, UKCS gas production is a critical
element for UK energy security and its decarbonisation policy. Crude oil
produced on the UKCS is capable of being delivered worldwide but gas
(with the exception of gas from some small southern North Sea fields
(SNS) delivered to the Netherlands) has to be delivered to the UK onshore
network, the National Transmission System (NTS). Furthermore, indigenous
gas production permits greater deployment of renewables without incurring
the economic risks associated with excessive dependence on gas imports to
back-up variable renewable output. In other words, maximising economic
recovery of domestic gas from the UKCS will assist in delivering wider energy
and climate policy objectives.
Figure 6: UK Gas Supply and Self-Sufficiency
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
UK Production/National Transmission System Throughput
Supply Volume (bcm)
UK Net Production
Norway
LNG Net Imports Belgium/Netherlands
UK Production/NTS Throughput
Source: BEIS, Oil & Gas UK projections
Maximising
economic
recovery of
domestic gas from
the UKCS will
assist in delivering
wider energy and
climate policy
objectives.