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FROZEN HEAT
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The future energy system could develop in a number of differ-
ent directions, depending upon how we prioritize various ob-
jectives, including climate change mitigation, energy security,
economic development, air and water pollution, and human
health. These considerations often compete with each other
for the attention of policy-makers. Transforming the global
energy system to achieve a sustainable future requires an in-
tegrated approach that addresses a diverse set of objectives si-
multaneously. The transformation is technically possible, but
reaching it will require the rapid introduction of coordinated
efforts to address global concerns. International technical and
scientific cooperation on gas hydrate issues will help inform
decision-makers and potentially lead to more effective and sus-
tainable policies in the future.
1.6.1
GAS HYDRATES COULD SUPPORT
GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY
As the cleanest of the fossil fuel options, natural gas could be
an important source of energy for any future energy scenario.
Gas hydrates are believed to occur in abundance in many set-
tings around the world. If this potential is confirmed, they
will become highly valued as local energy resources, particu-
larly for nations with limited conventional domestic energy
options. A sound scientific understanding of the implica-
tions and environmental consequences of gas hydrate pro-
duction needs to be developed before there is strong pressure
for wide-scale production.
1.6.2
CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE IS A
VITAL PARTNER TECHNOLOGY
As most long-term business-as-usual energy scenario pro-
jections show, the world is currently on a high greenhouse-
gas-emissions pathway. Although nations are now making
commitments to reduce absolute greenhouse gas emissions
or greenhouse gas intensity, it seems likely that atmospher-
ic carbon dioxide will increase to more than 450 parts per
million by 2100. Beyond this level, according to the IPCC,
dangerous climate change becomes likely. Expanded gas use
can somewhat mitigate greenhouse gas emissions through
reducing demand for less clean-burning fossil fuels. How-
ever, it is possible that, without additional investment in miti-
gating technologies, disincentives for nuclear and renewable
energy could lead to a gas-fuelled future that does not meet
greenhouse gas reduction targets.
Carbon capture and storage technology could be a possible
partner for the hydrocarbon industry. Research to evaluate
production techniques that sequester carbon dioxide while
producing methane from gas hydrates is currently under
way. Policy-makers will need to consider developments in
such technologies when making investment decisions about
gas hydrates.
1.6.3
REGULATORY REGIME
For many countries with a history of hydrocarbon develop-
ment, regulations are well-established, with careful checks
and balances to assure safety and environmental protection.
For countries without a long history of hydrocarbon develop-
ment and/or without a strong/efficient regulatory system, it
may be desirable to provide international assistance to estab-
lish sound regulatory regimes. It is, however, noteworthy that
even with well-established regimes, failures like the Exxon
Valdez and Deepwater Horizon disasters occur.
In this chapter, we discussed a long-term vision for the en-
ergy system and the possible role of gas hydrates in the tran-
sition towards this vision. Recent gas hydrate assessments
suggest that such transformational pathways to a sustainable
future are achievable in technological and economic terms.
The latter are dependent on societal choices and carefully
considered government policies and industry strategies.
1.6
CONSIDERATIONS
AND CONCLUSIONS