19 / 28
Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015 Annex F |
19
Image courtesy of Enagás
The supply curves of the different price configurations are built as following:
\\
Neutral:
the supply curve of each source is based on the same average
import price of the selected Global Context scenario.
\\
Source S cheap:
the supply curve of the source S is move downward along
the price axis by 20% of the Yearly average gas import price
\\
Source S expensive:
the supply curve of the source S is move upward along
the price axis by 20% of the Yearly average gas import price
As in previous TYNDP reports the methodology considers some major supply stress
against which the European gas system should be assessed. Depending on the
source one or two potential complete disruption events have been defined:
\\
Russian transit through Ukraine
\\
Russian transit through Belarus
\\
Langeled pipeline between Norway and UK
\\
Franpipe pipeline between Norway and France
\\
Transmed pipeline between Algeria and Italy
\\
MEG pipeline between Algeria and Spain (including supply to Portugal)
\\
TANAP pipeline between Azerbaijan and Greece
No specific disruption event is considered for LNG given the global dimension of the
market preventing large scale effect of a political or technical disruption along the
gas chain.
3.9 OUTPUT OF THE MODELLING
As output, modelling enables for each case the identification of a feasible flow pat-
tern minimizing the objective function. Such flow pattern then supports the calcula-
tion of modelling-based indicators and monetary analysis.