TPT September 2009

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G lobal M arketplace
September 2009 79 ›
Nearer-term economic news from China would appear to support
these predictions. On 16 July, the government at Beijing said that
the Chinese economy – propelled by aggressive bank lending and a
big economic stimulus package – grew 7.9% in the second quarter
as compared with the equivalent period of 2008.
The growth this time was driven by strong auto and property sales,
a rebound in manufacturing, and huge infrastructure spending
which, incidentally, is propping up global commodity prices.
Gross domestic product figures released by the National Bureau of
Statistics, in Beijing, suggest that China will most likely achieve the
8% full-year growth target it set for 2009.
Notes on the UK
› With UK property investors returning to market, Britain appears
to be better positioned than the USA to lead a recovery in
commercial real estate. One American firm of realty analysts
estimates London’s market cycle to be about six months ahead of
that of New York, thus at least that much closer to recovery. Some
analysts credit the British advantage partly to the greater price
transparency in that market, where property funds traditionally
attract more small investors. When the market dropped, many of
these investors took themselves out of the funds, forcing companies
to revalue their assets more frequently – with all that that means for
accurate accountancy and responsible decision-making.
Another distinction between the UK and US property markets is
that Britain’s is financed more through commercial bank loans and
less by mortgage-backed securities, the obligations implicated
most heavily in the subprime-debt debacle in the US financial
industry.
› According to the Carbon Trust, a London-based group dedicated
to the development of commercial low-carbon technologies, the
potential for wind and wave power in Britain is immense. A new
report from the group asserts that, with carefully targeted subsidies
and regulations, Britain could build 29 gigawatts of electrical
capacity from offshore wind (the global total is now 66gW) by 2020,
giving it 45% of the offshore power market. The report also noted
that Britain accounts for a quarter of all wave power technologies,
strongly suggesting that the country “could be the ‘natural owner’ of
the global wave power market” in this century.
Writing on 3 July, James Kanter of the ecology blog Green Inc
reviewed new analysis by the Carbon Trust indicating that, in
addition to the over $4bn a year that British businesses could
save themselves through carbon reduction methods, Britain could
generate up to $114bn for the economy and almost 250,000 jobs
from offshore wind and wave power.
He quoted David McVeigh, an executive from a heavy industries
division of Harland and Wolff, shipbuilders, as saying that he
discerns “a great opportunity” in marine power.
“Our investment in this sector has resulted in our busiest activity
level for many years, building offshore wind farm foundations such
as jackets, monopiles, and gravity bases,” said Mr McVeigh. “In the
UK we have all the right ingredients – reliable wind, wave, and tidal
resources in reasonably shallow water close to population centres
that need energy.”
Oil and gas
In a reversal, Russia recruits Royal Dutch Shell
for its Sakhalin project
Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on 27 June that Royal Dutch Shell
Plc had been invited by Russia to participate in the development
of two oil fields on Sakhalin, the island north of Japan that has
estimated reserves of 14 billion barrels of oil and 96 trillion cubic
feet of natural gas. As reported by the Russian news agency RIA,
Mr Putin struck a markedly collegial note in his meeting in Moscow
with Shell’s CEO, Jeroen Van der Seer, making plain that he
envisions a long-term relationship.
Stressing Shell’s expertise in gas liquefaction, Mr Putin told the oil
major’s chief, “I expect it is quite possible to continue cooperation
with Shell on other sections. We are speaking about sections
farther away from the shore, at greater depths (viz. Sakhalin III and
Sakhalin IV), and here your experience could be in demand.”
The meeting of minds followed a period of strained relations
between the Kremlin and the Western energy company over one
of the world’s largest natural gas fields. In 2007, Shell was forced
to relinquish its controlling interest in Sakhalin II development to
Russia’s state-controlled gas monopoly OAO Gazprom for $7.5bn.
But Shell retained 25.7% of the stake, and helped launch a $22bn
liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant, Russia’s first, in February.
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