MOUNTAIN ADAPTATION OUTLOOK SERIES

While projections for future impacts of climate

change on agriculture in large parts of Africa are

dire, the mountainous areas of East Africa may

benefit from warmer temperatures and an increase

in precipitation (Niang et al., 2014). For example,

farmers in mountain areas may be able to cultivate

crops that have previously been unsuited to the

area, such as maize, which has been limited by

the low temperatures. A study by Thornton et al.

(2010), argues that, while maize yields will decrease

in lowland Kenya, the highland areas are likely

to become more favourable for maize. The study

also identified similar results for highland areas in

Burundi, Rwanda and DRC. The same is also true

for livestock. While livestock farming is common

in some parts of East Africa, it has generally been

less successful in mountain areas due to the colder

temperatures. This may change as temperatures

increase (Thornton et al., 2010; Niang et al., 2014).

However, the projected increase in precipitation

could also have adverse effects, such as increased

exposure to diseases for livestock and crops. More

rainfall may increase the risk of livestock exposure

to respiratory diseases and foot rot (MoNR,

2012). There is also concern that crop pests that

have been restricted by cold temperatures could

extend into higher altitudes when temperatures

increase. Examples include the coffee berry borer

(Hypothenemus hampei) that attacks arabica coffee

and the burrowing nematode (Radopholus similis)

that affects bananas, both important cash crops in

the subregion (Niang et al., 2014; UNEP, 2014). The

higher temperatures will also expose the East Africa

mountain region to malaria.

There is also concern that the increase in rainfall will

not be distributed evenly across the year, but may

intensify over short periods of time (IPCC, 2012;

World Bank, 2013), and thus further increase the

SUDAN

SOUTH SUDAN

ERITREA

DJIBOUTI

ETHIOPIA

SOMALIA

KENYA

MOZAMBIQUE

UGANDA

TANZANIA

ZAMBIA

DRC

RWANDA

BURUNDI

Climate change impacts

on agriculture

Source:G.Fischeretal

,2005, “Socio-economicandclimatechange impactsonagriculture:

an integratedassessment,1990-2080”,PhilosophicalTransactionsof theRoyal SocietyB:Biological

Sciences360 (1463):2067-83.

200 km

Projected impact of climate change

on cereal productivity for 2080

compare to 2000*

-5

-25

-50

not suitable

*IPCC SRES A2 scenario.