MOUNTAIN ADAPTATION OUTLOOK SERIES

400 recorded species of mammals and 7,500

species of plants and animals, of which 15 per cent

are endemic. The Virunga National Park, in the

Albertine Rift, has the largest diversity of vertebrate

species of all protected areas in Africa, including the

endangered okapi (UNEP, 2014). Furthermore, 14

per cent of Africa’s vascular plants are found within

the Eastern Arc Mountains, an area that represents

only 0.24 per cent of Africa’s total land area (Platts

et al., 2012).

Due to the climatic and topographic differences, and

the diversity of species within the region, as well as

differences in climate models, results from studies

on the impact of climate change vary considerably.

Several studies, however, find that flora and fauna

will move towards higher altitudes as temperatures

increase. Such results were found by Thuiller et al.

(2006), in their assessment of the vulnerability of

African mammals to climate change in 11 national

parks across Africa. The study found that while 25

to 40 per cent of the 144 assessed mammal species

will become critically endangered or extinct by

2080 (assuming that the species cannot spread)

in Africa as a whole, Mount Kenya National

Park could see an increase in species richness by

between 50 to 80 per cent, because of the park’s

cooler climate at a higher altitude. While the study

did not include other mountainous areas, it may be

assumed that other national parks in East Africa

could see similar results.

However, climate change is likely to have an adverse

effect on species already living at higher altitudes

as their habitat decreases when they are forced to

migrate upwards. A study by BirdLife International

(2015), focusing on the Albertine Rift, found that

of the 14 endemic bird species assessed, all are at

severe risk from the impacts of climate change. By

2085, it is projected that the habitats for these birds

will move upwards and shift slightly northwards.

On average, the birds will migrate to altitudes

350 metres higher, which will severely limit their

habitat. Similarly, the African Conservation

Centre (2012) finds that suitable areas for species

dependent on high elevation and moist climates will

shrink and move upwards towards the peaks. On the

other hand, Platts et al. (2012), studied the impact

of climate change on plants in the Eastern Arc

Mountains and found that two-thirds of the plants

studied will move in different directions (up and

down) in different parts of the region, depending on

changes in seasonality and water availability in each

location. It is therefore, not a given that all species

will migrate towards higher altitudes.

The impact of climate change on forests includes

a documented increase in forest fires on Mount

Kilimanjaro. As a result of a drier climate, the

incidence of wildfires in the montane forest belt

has increased and the damage is more severe. This

has displaced the forest line to a lower altitude and

changed the vegetation composition (Hemp, 2005).

As a direct consequence, there has been a drastic

decline in water flow from the mountain. Hemp

(2005) estimates that the loss of forests through fires

since 1976 has reduced the annual dew by 25 per

cent, an amount equivalent to the annual demand

for drinking water for 1 million people living

around Mount Kilimanjaro. Furthermore, a study by

Krishnaswamy et al. (2014) identified that climate

change, mainly through increasing temperatures,

has caused a browning of the vegetation in the

eastern part of Africa across eight higher elevation

national parks since the 1990s, indicating that the

land is either degraded or the productivity of the

land has decreased.

Lake Edward

Lake George

Katonga

Lake

Albert

Lake Kivu

Beni

Fort

Portal

Kasese

Gisenyi

Goma

Musanze

Butembo

Virunga

National

Park

Virunga

National

Park

Semliki

National

Park

Kibale

National

Park

Rwenzori

Mountains

National

Park

Queen

Elisabeth

National

Park

Vulcanoes

National

Park

Mgahinga Gorilla

National Park

Bwindi

Impenetrable

National Park

Sarambwe

Reserve

Rutshuru

Hunting

Area

UGANDA

RWANDA

DRC

4127

3474

4507

Volcan Karisimbi

3711

3674

2510

Margherita

Peak 5109

3566

Greater Virunga

Sources: J.K.Stearns,C.Vogel,2015, “The landscapeof

armedgroups in theEasternCongo”,Centeron International

Cooperation

;www.greatervirunga.org ;maps-for-free.com

50 km

Ramsar sites

World Heritage

sites (UNESCO)

National Parks

Hunting Areas

Reserves

Main Peaks

Presence of

armed groups

Greater Virunga