WCA January 2015

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48 Wire & Cable ASIA – January/February 2015
Telecomnews
Projection to 2018: the
smartphone triumphs
absolutely over ‘the lowly
feature phone’
“CCS Insight in October released its
latest Global Mobile Phone Forecast
and it makes for fairly grim reading if
you’re a vendor.
“It’s a slightly more welcome develop-
ment if you’re a user. If you’re a
Chinese user, even better.”
Research from the telecom market research and consulting firm
TeleGeography indicates that, while the number of circuit-switched (PSTN)
telephone lines is dropping steadily, much of the decline in switched
subscribers can be attributed to the growth of fixed VoIP (voice over
internet Protocol) service. (“Fixed-Line Telephony: A Far Cry From Dead,”
15th October)
Tracking of landline, wireless and broadband competition found that the
total (PSTN and VoIP) of global fixed-line voice subscribers peaked at
1.29 billion in 2008, and has declined at a compounded annual rate of
1.3 per cent since.
But according to TeleGeography the aggregate numbers “mask a large shift
in market composition.” Even as switched telephone lines have declined at
a compounded annual rate of four per cent, VoIP subscribers have grown
18 per cent, helping to offset much of the decline in switched phone lines.
VoIP connections now account for 20 per cent of fixed lines worldwide,
up from just eight per cent in 2008. This uptake is largely attributable to
the rapid adoption of multi-play plans, which bundle fixed voice service
with broadband Internet, TV, and sometimes mobile telephony services.
TeleGeography cited the example of US telecom AT&T, which in June 2014
reported that 97 per cent of its TV customers subscribed to at least one
other service, while two-thirds of these users subscribed to three or four.
“It will be decades before the PSTN disappears from all corners of the world,
but the trend towards VoIP is inexorable,” TeleGeography flatly declared –
a conclusion supported by the statistics.
In 2013, 25 per cent of fixed lines in eastern Europe were IP-based,
while 35 per cent of fixed voice lines in western Europe and 33 per cent
in North America were IP. Some national incumbent providers are now
transitioning to all-IP networks.
In 2014, Deutsche Telekom enabled Macedonia to become the first country
to switch fully from the PSTN to an all-IP network, and the company aims
to turn off its legacy TDM switches and completely convert its network in
Slovakia to IP by the end of 2014.
Ø The projection has total global fixed lines falling to ten per cent below
their 2008 peak level by 2018, at which point switched lines will have
declined by 33 per cent. VoIP lines will have grown by over 250 per cent
over the period to account for nearly one-third of phone lines worldwide.
TeleGeography sums up: “Fixed-line voice is a far cry from dead. But it is no
longer synonymous with the PSTN.”
The traditional voice market may be in long-term decline, but
growth in fixed VoIP is cushioning the fall
IT journalist Ian Scales was parsing
the finding of the British-based global
technology analyst company that,
after four years of growth, the ASP
(average selling price) of a mobile
phone is dropping. While some
1.94 billion were sold in 2014, that
represents a growth rate of “only” ten
per cent.
While that would be good in any
other business, Mr Scales wrote in
TelecomTV, mobile can now expect
pressure on prices and profits across
all phone tiers. The outlook looks
slightly better in emerging markets
where a lively 33 per cent growth
rate is expected – along with much
lower ASPs. (“Smartphone Squeeze:
Growth in Smartphone Sales Is Tailing
Off in Europe,” 15th October)
Isolate smartphones and things look
up, Mr Scales wrote. CCS estimates
that 1.3 billion smartphones were
sold globally in 2014, an increase of
25 per cent year-on-year. However,
this compares to a growth rate of
40 per cent in 2013. CCS expects
the slowing trend to continue and
year-on-year growth to drop to 15 per
cent in 2015.
By 2018, the projection is for the
smartphone to have triumphed
absolutely. The “lowly feature phone,”
says CCS Insight, will by then account
for just 17 per cent of the total mobile
phone market.
Also according to CCS, Mr Scales
noted in conclusion, by 2017 the bulk
of 4G phone sales will be in China.
Elsewhere in telecom . . .
Ø Telekom Austria announced on
16th October that its first customer
in Vienna had been connected to
“G.fast ultra-broadband” using
Alcatel-Lucent kit. The technology
reportedly has been demonstrated
at data rates of more than
100Mbit/s per household using
existing copper lines.
The company said that it plans to
selectively deploy G.fast along-
side, rather than in place of, fibre
to the home (FTTH). It is described
as a hybrid technology with fibre
delivering high-speed broadband
to the building (FTTB) and G.fast
handling the final few hundred feet
via the building’s existing copper
wiring, thus avoiding any costly
rewiring. This would commend
the method for use in larger, older
European cities, such as Vienna,
with many historic multi-dwelling
buildings.
Ø The 16-member consortium
behind the Europe India Gateway
(EIG) submarine cable system
has reported that Ciena has
completed the first phase of its
100Gbps upgrade, and com-
menced work on the second
phase of the project. BigStockPhoto.com • Photographer: Krishnacreations