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Projected GDP Growth can be used to
forecast the likely trajectory of the business
jet penetration for each region. Realization
of fleet growth implicitly assumes expected
adoption and acceptance of business jets and
the progressive removal of barriers to growth,
notably lack of adequate infrastructure and
regulatory limitations. As the economy
develops, the expected growth of the
business jet fleet in each region can be
reasonably predicted over the longer term.
Once fleets are netted of aircraft retirements,
business jet deliveries to each region can
be derived.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management has
recently introduced the term "Growth Market"
to define any country outside the developed
world that is responsible for at least 1% of
global GDP. These economies are most likely
to "experience rising productivity coupled
with favorable demographics and, therefore,
a faster growth rate than the world average
going forward". These include the BRIC
countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China)
and also Mexico, South Korea, Turkey and
Indonesia. We expect a significant share of
business jet deliveries to originate from
these Growth Markets.
current market drivers
Bombardier Business Aircraft
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Market Forecast 2011-2030
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