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the forecast
Bombardier Business Aircraft
|
Market Forecast 2011-2030
23
Orders, Deliveries and
Revenues
With the continued recovery of the worldwide
economy in 2010 and 2011, leading indicators
for business aviation are improving, resulting
in increased orders for new business jets
and much fewer cancellations. This trend
is expected to continue, primarily driven by
growth in emerging markets and replacement
demand in more established markets.
However, industry deliveries tend to lag order
intake as manufacturers strive to maintain
acceptable backlog levels. As a result,
industry deliveries for 2011 are expected
to be relatively flat when compared to 2010
(approximately 530 aircraft). Improved orders
and backlog should result in increasing
industry deliveries beginning in 2012. The
recovery in deliveries is then expected to
be strong and we forecast that the industry
will surpass the prior delivery peak year
(2008) by as early as 2014.
Business Jet Industry 20-Year Deliveries Outlook
Units, calendar years, 1991-2030
Sources: Bombardier Forecasting Model.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
1991-2000
3,600 units
2001-2010
6,400 units
2011-2020
10,000 units
2021-2030
14,000 units
Increased orders and backlog
should result in
increasing industry
deliveries beginning in 2012.