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the forecast
North America
(United States and Canada)
Bombardier Business Aircraft
|
Market Forecast 2011-2030
26
The U.S. economy has been on a recovery
path since mid-2009. Although there is still
plenty of slack in the American economy,
growth is expected to unfold evenly through-
out 2011. Many key areas are now displaying
visible growth: employment, consumer
spending, and exports, with the latter being
fuelled by rapid growth in emerging markets.
Last, but not least, corporate profits grew
8.5% between Q1-2010 and Q1-2011.
On the other hand, inflation has become
more of a concern, with higher gasoline and
food prices. It is expected to grow to 3.0%
this year, up from 1.6% last year. In the short
term, the higher U.S. dollar is representing
a slight drag on real GDP.
The Canadian economy accelerated at
a good rate in 2010. The consumer,
government, investment and trade sectors
all performed well. As with the U.S.,
Canada’s economy is expected to be
stronger moving into 2011.
According to IHS Global Insight, real GDP
growth for North America should improve
this year over last year, with a forecast 3.2%
growth in 2011, up from 2.8% in 2010.
Economic growth should remain steady
for the region over the 2011-2030 period,
with a yearly average of 2.7%.
As the most prevalent economic region
around the world, North America should
continue creating wealth and sustaining the
development of its business aircraft industry.
Business Jet Penetration Forecast - North America
Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030
Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
1,000
10,000
100,000
GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)
Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)
1960
2010
Actual
Forecast
2030