30 / 50
the forecast
Bombardier Business Aircraft
|
Market Forecast 2011-2030
30
China delivered a stellar performance during
the Great Recession with 9.1% and 10.3%
growth in 2009 and 2010. The Chinese
government has been implementing measures
to prevent the economy from overheating.
Credit tightening should start cooling down
domestic demand and price controls for the
property market should limit construction
activities. Given the Chinese public’s high
financial savings, consumer-demand growth
should remain resilient throughout the year.
Traditionally driven by export markets, China
is determined to accelerate its transition
toward a more domestically based economy.
Taking a longer term perspective, China
and India are expected to lead the world’s
economic growth. Given China’s large
population and vast physical size, strong
growth could continue for several years
and spread from coastal areas to inland
provinces. In its 12th 5-year plan, China
will continue to focus on inclusive growth,
by guaranteeing housing affordability and
by investing massively in rural regions.
According to IHS Global Insight, China's
economy is expected to grow at 9.5% in
2011. China is expected to account for an
annual average GDP growth of 7.2% for
the next 20 years.
Business aviation in China is at its very
early stages. Over the past years, significant
barriers have prevented the Chinese business
jet market to grow to its potential. Restrictive
China
Business Jet Penetration Forecast - China
Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030
Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.
GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)
Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)
1
10
100
1,000
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1960
2010
2030
Actual
Forecast