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the forecast
Bombardier Business Aircraft
|
Market Forecast 2011-2030
36
Recovering at a relatively moderate pace
from a deep recession suffered in 2009, the
Russian economy remains overly dependent
on energy export revenues to drive domestic
growth. Energy prices have risen steadily
since mid-2009. They are expected to remain
elevated in the near-to-medium term, particu-
larly in light of popular unrest in the Middle
East and North Africa. Exports have been
driving the recovery, while domestic demand
has remained slack. Consumer confidence has
bounced back and household consumption
has been adding some momentum to the
economic recovery.
Business confidence is improving as well,
as shown by the strong growth in investment
activity. Nevertheless, there are offsetting
factors in the Russian economic environment
that will keep growth in the moderate pace.
Commercial lending rates are still relatively
high and banks are leery of a new wave
of loan defaults.
Future growth will be influenced by WTO
accession and the nation's newly cemented
energy exporting ties to China. According to
Moscow investment bank Renaissance
Capital, increased government spending
before parliamentary elections in the end of
the year and a presidential vote in early 2012
may boost inflation. The number of billionaires
in Russia & CIS amounted to 116 in 2010,
up 61% from 72 in 2009, according to
Forbes. A total of 50 billionaires live in
Moscow, making it the city with the second-
highest billionaire population after New York.
Russia & CIS
Business Jet Penetration Forecast - Russia & CIS
Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030
Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.
1,000
10,000
100,000
GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)
Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)
1
10
100
1,000
1960
2010
Actual
Forecast
2030