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the forecast
Bombardier Business Aircraft
|
Market Forecast 2011-2030
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According to the African Economic Outlook
by the OECD released in June 2011, recent
political events in North Africa and high food
and fuel prices are likely to slow the conti-
nent’s growth down to 3.7% in 2011. During
this year, Sub-saharan Africa will grow faster
than North Africa. From 2011 to 2030,
Africa’s growth is predicted to average
4.4% per year, according to IHS Global
Insight.
Due to the low economic growth over the
past 50 years, business aviation did not
take root in Africa. The fleet in the region is
relatively small, representing only 2% of the
worldwide fleet. Technical support remains
minimal and lack of trained pilots increases
the costs of operating a business jet.
However, things could begin to change
due to a prosperous outlook on the horizon.
Africa is now one of the world’s fastest-
growing regions. South Africa held the
2010 World Cup, and its economy and
infrastructure highly benefited from the event.
Although taxes are high in some countries,
this is not a limitation for aircraft sales.
Gaps in scheduled airline service will mean
growth opportunities for business aviation,
but at a slow rate of penetration.
As the forecast business jet penetration
curve shows, fleet per 100 million population
is expected to grow from 37 to 80 over
the next 20 years. Africa will receive 800
business jet deliveries during the 2010-2030
period, 325 aircraft between 2011 and 2020,
and 475 aircraft between 2021 and 2030.
The 2010 fleet of 320 business jets will grow
to 950 aircraft by 2030, with a fleet growth
CAGR of approximately 6%.
Africa
(continued)
Fleet Evolution Forecast - Africa
Fleet, Deliveries, Retirements; 2010-2030
Sources: Ascend, Bombardier forecast. Excludes Very Light Jet and Large Corporate Airline categories.
320
80
90
950
565
475
325
Fleet 2010 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2020 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2030