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the forecast
Bombardier Business Aircraft
|
Market Forecast 2011-2030
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Africa – given the range of its geographic
and economic conditions – is recovering at
a different pace. While the global economy
shrank in 2008-2009, the Sub-saharan
Africa’s economy managed to grow another
2% in 2009 and its growth rate in 2010 was
close to 5%. Recovery in Nigeria, Africa's
largest oil exporting economy, continues to
be on track, and will show further positive
signs as both oil production and prices keep
on improving. The continued robust growth in
the non-oil sector will be a major contributing
factor. Chinese investment and trade has
increased dramatically in recent years in
Angola and Nigeria.
South Africa went into recession following a
sharp slowdown in the mining and manufac-
turing sectors. The construction industry, on
the other hand, has benefited from a huge
program of government investment to pre-
pare for the 2010 World Cup.
The ongoing turmoil in Egypt, Tunisia, and
Libya has substantially disrupted economic
activity in North Africa and will continue to
weigh on the economies in these countries
over the next several months. Tourism and
investment have been hit hard and are
expected to continue to slump in the near
term given the new political uncertainties
facing the region, while normal business
activities have also been impaired by the crisis.
Africa
Business Jet Penetration Forecast - Africa
Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030
Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.
GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)
Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)
1
10
100
100
1,000
10,000
1960
2010
2030
Actual
Forecast