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the forecast
Bombardier Business Aircraft
|
Market Forecast 2011-2030
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Middle East recorded significant economic
growth between 2004 and 2008, an annual
6.7% on average, largely due to high oil
prices. In 2009, tight international credit,
plummeting oil prices and the global economic
slowdown inhibited Middle East's real GDP
growth to 0.6%. 2010 saw the whole region
recover gradually with a 4.1% GDP growth.
Recovery was largely driven by increasing oil
revenues, improving exports, and state
spending, the latter made possible by finan-
cial reserves accumulated by the Gulf states
during the 2004-2008 prosperous period.
The beginning of 2011 witnessed the emer-
gence of political unrest in North Africa and
the Middle East. The "Arab Spring" resulted
in change in regimes in Tunisia and Egypt,
civil war in Libya, and civil troubles in Syria,
Yemen, and Bahrain. The resulting uncertainty
may somewhat damp confidence in this
year's economic outlook for the region.
In the Gulf states, oil production is expected
to increase in the short term to compensate
for losses in Libyan crude oil. Saudi Arabia
will strongly benefit from this situation, and
thus will see its economy accelerate in 2011.
As well, government spending and exports
will continue to bolster overall activity in the
Kingdom.
Middle East
Business Jet Penetration Forecast - Middle East
Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030
Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.
GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)
Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)
1
10
100
1,000
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1960
2010
2030
Actual
Forecast