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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
6.3.2 CAPACITY-BASED INDICATORS
The capacity-based indicators focus exclusively on the infrastructure component of
system resilience. These indicators consider the quantity and diversification of entry
capacity and not the availability of supply.
6.3.2.1 Import Route Diversification (IRD)
The Import Route Diversification indicator focuses on how balanced the import
capacity of a given Zone is. For example, a Zone is better diversified, from an import
infrastructure perspective, if its entry capacity is equally split between four borders
rather than being one predominant. The indicator formula is similar to the Herfind-
ahl-Hirschman-Index (HHI) and hence, the lower the value, the better the diversifi-
cation.
Figure 6.18 shows the evolution of the IRD indicator. There is no defined threshold
for this indicator, hence three ranges have been defined from an equal distribution
of the year 2015 i.e. one third of the Zones had an IRD below 3,585 (33-percentile),
one third between 3,585 and 6,153 and one third above 6,153 (66 percentile).
The IRD indicator is only linked to infrastructure. The commissioning of FID projects
is not sufficient to improve the situation of less diversified countries. The implemen-
tation of Non-FID projects would ensure that all countries, with the exception of
Sweden, FYROM and Cyprus, at least reached the intermediate range.
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See figure 6.18 on page 155
6.3.2.2 N-1 for ESW-CBA
The N-1 indicator is calculated for each country and derives from Regulation (EC)
994/2010 on Security of Supply. It focuses on the peak demand situation with the
loss of the single largest infrastructure. It differs from the original indicator calculat-
ed by the Competent Authorities as it has to be:
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computed on a twenty-one year time horizon
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consistent with the capacity used in the Report (application of the lesser of
rule to the capacity level on each side of a flange)
The higher the indicator value, the better the resilience.
Figures 6.19 and 6.20 show the evolution of the N-1 indicator for each country for
both Green and Grey scenarios.
For both Green and Grey scenarios, the 2015 – 2020 evolution shows that FID-projects improve the situation in Scandinavia. At the same time, increasing demand
in Poland reduces resilience. The implementation of Non-FID projects together with
additional indigenous production will largely improve the situation across Europe
and especially in South-Eastern Europe. Beyond 2020, the situation remains stable.
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See figures 6.19 and 6.20 on pages 156–157