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6.4.1 PHYSICAL DEPENDENCE
This part of the analysis measures the extent to which an import source is physical-
ly necessary to ensure the balance of a given country. Considering the level of inter-
connection of the European gas system, many flow patterns are possible resulting in
different views of the dependence.
Two extreme situations have been considered defined by the level of cooperation be-
tween market and institutional players of the different countries. Therefore for each
combination of country and import source two indicators have been calculated:
\\
Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence (USSD): each country tries to min-
imize its own dependence on the considered source, so the countries closest
to the source are likely to be more dependent
\\
Cooperative Supply Source Dependence (CSSD): all the countries together try
to spread the dependency in order to avoid as far as possible countries with
very high dependence
The lower the indicator is, the lower the dependence. When considering the de-
pendence on a given source, a country having a USSD higher than its CSSD means
that the country is supporting other countries in reducing their dependence.
An aggregated indicator per country has been defined on the basis of the combina-
tion of the Uncooperative Supply Source Dependence (USSD) and Cooperative Sup-
ply Source Dependence (CSSD) for each import source, assigning the same weight
to each one of them, as follows:
USSD = (USSD
RU
) ² + (USSD
NO
) ² + (USSD
LNG
) ² + (USSD
DZ
) ² + (USSD
LY
) ² + (USSD
AZ
) ²
CSSD = (CSSD
RU
) ² + (CSSD
NO
) ² + (CSSD
LNG
) ² + (CSSD
DZ
) ² + (CSSD
LY
) ² + (CSSD
AZ
) ²
A country with a zero USSD means it can always use alternative sources to completely
get rid of the minimized source. A country with a one hundred percent of USSD
cannot use alternative sources unless some other countries support it.
The figures 6.21. and 6.22 on the following pages show the evolution of the aggre-
gated USSD and CSSD for each country showing a significant dependence (USSD
or CSSD higher than 20%).
The increasing need of imports over the TYNDP period is illustrated by an increase
in the supply dependence of many countries under the Low scenario. By 2035, most
countries are dependent on at least one of the two predominant sources (LNG and
Russian gas) as a result of decreasing Norwegian supplies and relatively low level of
supplies from Algerian, Libyan and Azeri sources.
The analysis under the High scenario shows that new investment decisions and the
development of new indigenous production can ensure a very low dependence for
every European country. The only exceptions are in the Green scenario for Portugal
and FYROM whose dependence mitigation depends on the cooperation of other
countries.
The calculation of the indicators has identified significant physical dependence
(USSD or CSSD above 20%) on annual basis only to Russian and LNG supplies.
Such dependence is illustrated by the Russian and LNG Cooperative Supply Source
Dependence maps as this approach better shows the potential for infrastructure
projects to reduce the dependence.
\\
See figures 6.21 and 6.22 on pages 160–161