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Ten Year Network Development Plan 2015
Image:
iStockphoto.com6.4.1.1 RU cooperative dependence – CSSD RU
The TYNDP 2015 version of the dependence indicator confirms the TYNDP 2013
results. Apart the improvement of the situation for Poland with FID project commis-
sioned between 2015 and 2020, dependence on Russian gas will increase in the
Baltic, Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe countries in the absence of new
infrastructure projects. The extension of the TYNDP period shows that this growing
regional dependence could spread to the whole of Europe under the Low scenario.
In 2035 only the Iberian Peninsula would have a Russian gas dependence below
five percent due to the availability of Algerian gas and LNG combined with low inter-
connection to the rest of Europe. This dependence is primarily caused by a lack of
available alternative volume and not only due to capacity congestion.
The High scenario illustrates the potential for new supplies (indigenous production,
Azeri gas and new LNG terminals) and better market integration to maintain a low
dependence on Russian gas across Europe. The end of the production license in the
Romanian part of the Black Sea explains the surge in dependence on Russian gas
by 2035 for the High scenario under the Green Global Context.
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See figures 6.23 and 6.24 on pages 163–164