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Image courtesy of Gasum
6.4.1.2 LNG cooperative dependence – CSSD LNG
Physical dependence to LNG shows mirror results compared to the Russian de-
pendency and to the TYNDP 2013-2022. Under the Low scenario the dependence
on LNG supply is limited to one region, the Iberian Peninsula and France before it
extends to the whole Europe due to the decreasing share of all other supply sourc-
es except Russia. The commissioning of Non-FID projects and associated new sup-
plies could reduce the dependency except for the Iberian Peninsula for which addi-
tional projects would be necessary to further reduce its physical dependency on
LNG.
In 2035 under the Low scenario whole of Europe will become dependent on LNG
even if in a lower extent than Iberian Peninsula and Greece. This dependence is
primarily caused by a lack of available alternative volume and not only due to capac-
ity congestion. For this same year under the Green Global context and High Infra-
structure scenario, a small dependency to LNG appears for every EU Member State
as there is not enough Russian gas available to compensate the minimization of
LNG. This differs from the physical dependence on Russian gas. According to sup-
ply scenarios there is more LNG available than Russian gas at the end of the time
horizon.
The commissioning of Non-FID projects and associated new supplies could reduce
the dependency except for the Iberian Peninsula for which additional projects would
be necessary to further reduce its physical dependency on LNG.
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See figures 6.25 and 6.26 on pages 166–167