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Step 1:

Construct the

a priority

probability density

p

(

x

) for

the temperature distribution:

5.2

otherwise

0 )(

ΔT x ΔT for

)(

=

+ ≤ ≤ −

=

xp

C xp

The integral must be unity.

( )

d

p x x

−∞

( )d

T

T

p x x C x

+

−∞

= ⋅

2

C

= ⋅

1

2

C

=

1

( )

for

2

( ) 0 otherwise

p x

T

x

T

p x

=

− ≤

≤ +

=

83