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45

omies, the scarcity of capital for adaptation measures, their

warmer baseline climates and heightened exposure to extreme

events (Tubiello and Fischer, 2006; Brown and Funk, 2008).

This will aggravate inequalities in food production among re-

gions (Parry

et al

., 2005).

Regional impacts will be strongest across Africa and Western

Asia where yields of the dominant regional crops may fall by

15–35% once temperatures rise by 3 or 4º C (Stern Review,

2006). Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be worst affected,

meaning the poorest and most food insecure region is also

expected to suffer the largest contraction of agricultural pro-

duction and income. Despite the uncertainties regarding

short-term effects, models do point to many cases where food

security is clearly threatened by climate change by 2030, with

losses in major crops by this time (Lobell

et al

., 2008).

There is wide variation in how individual species in different

regions respond to a warming climate and Lobell

et al

. (2008)

identified 3 general classes of crop responses to climate

change projections: 1) Consistently negative, for example,

Southern African maize; 2) Large uncertainties ranging from

substantially positive to substantially negative, for example,

South Asian groundnut; and 3) Relatively unchanged, for ex-

ample, West African wheat. Adaptation to climate change by

switching from highly vulnerable to less vulnerable crops may

be viable, and is recommended particularly for South Asia

and South Africa where the case for adaptation is particularly

robust (Lobell

et al

., 2008).

The impacts on crops are also highly variable in different re-

gions and on different types of crops. For example, in Southern

Africa, declines in production of 15% for wheat and 27% for