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46

Projected changes in agricultural productivity to 2080 due to

climate change, incorporating the effects of carbon fertilization

-50%

-15% 0

+15% +35% No data

maize in the absence of any agricultural adaptation to cli-

mate change have been projected by Lobell

et al.

(2008).

The effects of extreme weather are not included in these

estimates. In addition, these effects are projected to 2030

only, when the impacts of climate change would be only

just emerging. Increasing our understanding how crops

may be impacted under climate change conditions may

provide alternatives for adaptive strategies in the most vul-

nerable regions of the world (Lobell

et al

., 2008).

Based on a consensus estimate of 6 climate models and

two crop modelling methods, Cline (2007) concluded that

by 2080, assuming a 4.4° C increase in temperature and

a 2.9% increase in precipitation, global agricultural output

potential is likely to decrease by about 6%, or 16% without

carbon fertilization. Cline suggested a range of output po-

tential decline between 10 and 25% among regions. As cli-

mate change increases, projections have been made that by

2080 agricultural output potential may be reduced by up

to 60% for several African countries, on average 16–27%,

dependent upon the effect of carbon fertilization (Figures

18 and 19). These effects are in addition to general water

scarcity as a result of melting glaciers, change in rainfall

patterns, or overuse.

Figure 18: Projected losses in food production due to climate change by 2080.

(Source: Cline, 2007).