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Yet-to-find (YTF) volumes range between 6-16 billion
boe, based on a cut-off rate of five per cent geological
success. However, the central case across a range of
geological success cut-off rates suggests a tighter range
of 2-9 billion boe, which would appear to be a more
realistic interpretation of likely exploration potential
given recent performance.
As shown in Figure 29, Oil & Gas UK estimates the range
of ultimate recovery to be between 11.5-22 billion boe,
based on currently available data and discounting the
high case outcomes tabled by the OGA for PARs and
YTF. The lower case reflects recent poor exploration
success and limited maturation of existing PARS
through to production. To achieve the high case of up to
22 billion boe, there will need to be significant
improvements in near-field and frontier exploration
success as well as concerted improvement in recovery,
driven by successful cost reduction and efficiency
programmes (see Section 5), substantial technological
advances and widespread deployment of enhanced
oil recovery.
7.2 Maturing Undeveloped Discoveries
A significant portfolio of discovered reserves has built
up over the years that has been unable to attract capital
for development. Wood Mackenzie estimates that there
are currently more than 300 such discoveries without
development plans comprising nearly 3.9 billion boe,
the majority of which were discovered before 2000.
As Figure 30 opposite shows, almost 80 per cent of these
total reserves reside in accumulations of 50 million boe
or less. Many of these opportunities are particularly
difficult to develop, based on parameters such as
reservoir accessibility, product quality or proximity to
infrastructure. When typical commercial thresholds are
applied, only 1.4 billion boe are currently considered
potentially economically viable to develop, with over
2.5 billion boe currently deemed only contingent
reserves. Given the limited lifespan of much existing
infrastructure, it is imperative that the industry now
rises to the challenge to find new ways to enhance the
viability of these typically small opportunities, or they
may never be recovered.
Figure 29: Estimated Total Resource Potential
8
12
1.5
4
2
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
Low
Outcome
High
Outcome
Reserves/Resources (Billion boe)
YTF
PARs
Reserves
Source: DECC, Oil & Gas UK