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1. Estimate the low dose (~2 Gy) age- gender- and organ-specific

relative risks from A-bomb survivors

2. Use standard models to

convert

these

low dose relative risks to apply to Western population / individual of

given age and gender

3. Extrapolate these low-dose risks to

fractionated high doses using mechanistic models

(initiation / killing / repopulation)

How to calculate cancer risks at high doses

Sachs&Brenner, PNAS 2005