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Environment and Security
28
supplies) Georgia, Azerbaijan and Kaza-
khstan in order to strengthen the capacity of
local forces to protect oil–related infrastruc-
ture (Klare, 2004). The new US doctrine fore-
sees the establishment of US military facili-
ties in the Caspian region (so-called Forward
Operating Locations) (Klare, 2006) – possibly
in Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan.
Deploying military forces in such a region
modifies the balance of power between ac-
tors. The August 2008 military actions in
Georgia, which is strategically positioned
on the oil routes from the Caspian Sea to
the Black and Mediterranean seas, coupled
with alleged terrorist attacks on the BTC
pipeline in north-east Turkey over the same
period, underline the high vulnerability of
the energy infrastructure to conflicts and
instability
22
.
The military presence has increased in the
Caspian region over the last ten years, with
coastal states increasing military spend-
ing and modernizing military infrastructure
(Katlik, 2004)
23
. At present there are large
disparities in military strength between the
five Caspian states. The Caspian being a
maritime region, the naval component is
particularly important. Russia and Iran are
the leading naval forces in the region, while
Kazakhstan
24
and Turkmenistan are invest-
ing in increasing their military forces in the
region and upgrading capacity.
The 2001 Iran-Azerbaijan confrontation
25
is
an illustration of the security risks related
to the unresolved legal status of the Cas-
pian Sea. However, since then there have
been no other inter-state military confronta-
tions although states have been strength-
ening their naval forces and border troops
in the region. Certainly all the actors are
well aware of the negative political and
economic impact of military conflict in the
region where even a limited confrontation
between two or more coastal states would
be enough to slow or halt offshore explora-
tion and put investors to flight. Further sig-
nificant investment in the energy sector will
only occur if there is political stability and
security in the region.