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Wire & Cable ASIA – January/February 2012
34
From the
americas
Manufacturing
Production outsourced to China is coming
back to the United States, heralding an
American “manufacturing renaissance”
The Boston Consulting Group, a respected global advisor
on business strategy, has concluded that the current pickup
in US manufacturing will accelerate over the next five years,
boosting output by $100 billion and adding two million to
three million jobs. In a report published 7
th
October, BCG
predicted that, with Chinese wages rising at 15-20 per cent
a year, and continued appreciation of the yuan against the
dollar, the gap between labour costs in Chinese coastal
provinces and in America’s lower-cost states will shrink to
less than 40 per cent by around 2015. This will have virtually
wiped out China’s edge over the US in the American
market.
The BCG analysis identifies seven “tipping-point” sectors
poised to return to a US manufacturing base over the
five-year period: transportation goods, computers and
electronics, fabricated metal products, machinery, plastics
and rubber, appliances and electrical equipment, and
furniture. Assuming increased US exports, in addition to
their contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) these
industry groups could lower the US non-oil merchandise
trade deficit by 30-35 per cent. (“The US Manufacturing
Renaissance: Which Industries?”)
The willingness of BCG to be specific about the industry
clusters most likely to return is supported by its research
into the shifting economics of manufacturing worldwide and
builds on reports released in August (“Made in America,
Again”) and in May. The October analysis confidently
asserts, “We project that China will lose most of the huge
cost advantage over the US that it has enjoyed since it
joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. As a
result, many companies will rethink where they produce
certain goods meant for sale in North America.”
The tipping-point sectors account for about $2 trillion in
US consumption per year and about 70 per cent of US
imports from China, valued at nearly $200 billion in 2009.
The job gains would come directly through added factory
work and indirectly through supporting services, such as
construction, transportation and retail.
When factors such as higher US productivity, the actual
labour content of a product, shipping and others are
taken into account, the cost advantage of manufacture in
China of goods bound for sale in the US will be marginal.
According to Harold L Sirkin, a BCG senior partner and lead
author of the analysis, “That will make the US a much more
attractive investment location for new factory capacity.”
[Note: Mr Sirkin’s most recent book, Globality: Competing
with Everyone from Everywhere for Everything, deals with
globalisation and emerging markets.]
China will adapt
“This does not mean that factories in China will close,”
said Michael Zinser, a BCG partner who leads the firm’s
manufacturing work in the Americas. “Instead, more of
their output will be consumed in the fast-growing domestic
market and elsewhere in Asia.” Some production migrating
from China will go to Mexico, where labour costs will remain
lower than in either China or the US. But not as much as
one might think, according to Justin Rose, a BCG principal
and a co-author of the analysis: “America’s experience
in these tipping-point sectors and its much larger pool of
skilled workers, as well as logistical and security concerns,
will make the US a better option for many companies.”
The changing economics of manufacturing are already
showing up in trade data. From 2001 through 2004, imports
from China grew by around 20 per cent per year. That
growth rate has slowed dramatically, to only around four per
cent in the past few years. US imports from other low-cost
nations also have flattened – and actually declined in 2009.
The trend is especially pronounced in the tipping-point
sectors. Douglas Hohner, a BCG partner and also a
co-author of the analysis, said: “We are already starting to
see some movement of production in these industries.”
❖
“Recent moves by companies underscore the new
manufacturing math,” the BCG report asserts. It goes
on to cite auto maker Ford, the IT maintenance provider
NCR, Master Lock, All-Clad Metalcrafters, audiovisual
equipment maker Peerless Industries, and irrigation
control company ET Water Systems as having recently
shifted the manufacture of some items from China to the
US. Escalating Chinese wages are apparently not the
sole factor. AmFor Electronics (Portland, Oregon) gave
delivery responsiveness and ease of design revisions
as reasons for relocating wire-harness production and
some final assembly from China and Mexico back home
to the American Northwest.
Automotive
In Michigan, a Korean company creates
jobs in metal bending and tooling: staples
of the state’s bygone industrial heyday
In early Autumn of last year, a ceremony was held in
Suwon City, South Korea, to celebrate a memorandum of
understanding to strengthen the economic ties between the
Korean province of Gyeonggi and the US state of Michigan.
Among those present was Moon-Gyu Kong, CEO of GNS
Automotive, the South Korean auto parts maker founded
by Mr Kong’s father 40 years ago and which has now
established an outpost in Holland, on the shore of Lake
Michigan.
Interviewed by Tom Walsh of the
Detroit Free Press
, the
younger Mr Kong explained the overseas expansion in
terms of the company’s wish to better serve its main
customer, General Motors – and at the same time to
move up from a Tier 2 to a Tier 1 supplier. In his view,
an American presence is a big step toward fulfilment of
that aim, and the US is more welcoming to newcomers
than China: “still not an easy country for foreigners to do
business [in],” according to Mr Kong.
The choice of Michigan, where in December 2009 GNS
bought out a Holland-based company with 28 employees,
Statue of Liberty Image from BigStockPhoto.com
Photographer: Marty