EuroWire July 2016

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Transatlantic cable
July 2016 27
As to what lies ahead (ie after 8th November, when the nation
chooses President Barack Obama’s successor), the economists
sampled by the WSJ shift away from their sunny hindsight.
On average, they see a 20 per cent chance that the USA will
fall into recession in 2017. (It is perhaps worth noting here that
the recession predicted by many economists for 2016 failed to
materialise.)
They believe the pace of job growth is likely to slow. And they
worry about the risk of economic fallout in the USA if China’s
economy continues to deteriorate.
Mr Zumbrun summed up: “The outlook is far from rosy,
economists say. But going back to a 1960s standard of living
wouldn’t help.”
† Picking up the optimism where the WSJ economists left it
o , the respected investment rm T Rowe Price (Baltimore,
Maryland) provided these “key takeaways” from its Spring
2016 report to investors:
† The probability of a USA recession remains low, with 2 per
cent growth expected this year
† The link between the USA stock market and the economy
is weak, with 21 of 32 major market declines since 1948 not
leading to recessions
† The United States is not isolated and global headwinds
are not likely to go away. But slowing growth in China and
elsewhere abroad is not likely to trigger a USA recession
† Credit markets are healthy despite stress in high-yield bonds
related to the energy sector; and
† The pain from falling oil prices has come quicker than its
bene ts, but the pain mainly has been in the oil patch
Energy
While seemingly aware of the danger,
a sector especially vulnerable to cyberattack
is slow to put protections in place
According to the US Department of Homeland Security,
the energy sector faces more cyber attacks than any other
American industry. As reported by Barbara L Vergetis Lundin in
Smart Grid News, this conclusion is seconded by the Portland,
Oregon-based software company Tripwire, which provides
information technology solutions for security and compliance
automation.
Ms Vergetis Lundin, of the FierceMarkets Energy Group, wrote
that, in a survey of more than 150 IT professionals in the energy,
utilities, and oil and gas industries, conducted in the USA in
November 2015, Tripwire found that 77 per cent of respondents
had experienced a rise in successful cyber attacks in the 12
months to that date. Some 68 per cent said the rate of successful
cyber attacks had increased by more than 20 per cent in just the
previous month.
More speci cally, 78 per cent of respondents reported having
experienced, over the same one-year period, a cyber attack from
an external source; and 30 per cent knew of an attack from an
inside employee. Nearly 45 per cent said they had not gathered
enough information to identify the sources of the attacks. And
22 per cent acknowledged that their organisations did not
have processes in place to identify and protect sensitive and
con dential information.