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Environment and Security
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In only a few cases is the scarcity of renewable resources a
factor in interstate conflicts. But by limiting the productivity
of agriculture and the economy as a whole, encourag-
ing migration and social segmentation, and sapping the
power of the state, such scarcity can contribute to diffuse,
persistent, subnational civil violence. Scarcity often plays
an indirect role in violence, influencing the political and
economic character of social systems. The following table
summarizes these arguments:
If we use the perspectives suggested in the table above to
look at post-independence Central Asia it is apparent that the
region as a whole has been largely stable, with the exception
of the civil conflict in Tajikistan. For the last 10 years forecasts
have claimed that the Ferghana valley was on the verge of
an explosion, yet it has not experienced any major conflicts
(apart from the violent clashes involving theMeshketian Turks
in Ferghana during the early Perestroika, the 1990 Osh and
Uzgen clashes and the IMU incursions in 1999 and 2000).
Conclusions and outlook
The Ferghana valley environment and prospects for conflict
Summary of links between environment and security
Trends/examples in the Ferghana area
Ineffective interstate agreements on water-sharing due
to lack of political will. Breakdown of communal serv-
ices, limited state resources to repair infrastructure
Downstream countries highly dependent on upstream
ones for water supply. Water and land are strategic
resources both for states (cotton as a source of hard
currency) and subnational areas (increased importance
of agriculture for survival)
For reasons related to history and complex population
patterns, dominant players can easily use or manipu-
late the environment to serve specific group interests,
making environmental questions an ethnic issue
State control over the region has been strengthened
over the years. This is both a source of stability (control
of opposition) and instability (local actors mobilized
by grievances)
Only in certain regions, at sub-state level, is there a record
of local (violent) disputes though often with potential for
inter-ethnic and/or cross-boundary implications.
Syr-Darya basin
Lowlands; irrigated areas in Uzbekistan
Pollution and waste hotspots and areas, waterlogged
areas, degradation of land and forests
Low-land (especially Uzbek) part of the valley, enclaves
and areas squeezed between borders, forest areas in
Kyrgyzstan
Uplands and hills (Kyrgyzstan), enclaves
Description
Scarcity of regulatory mechanisms
and poor state performance
Dependency on scarce natural re-
sources
Instrumentalising the environment
Opportunities to build organizations
and find allies
Spillover from a historic conflict
Transnational river basins
Marginal vulnerable areas, at intrastate
level
Areas directly impacted by environment
degradation (pollution, waterlogging)
Densely populated areas where ac-
cess to key resources becomes an
issue of survival
Arid plains, mountain areas with high-
land-lowland interaction
Necessary
conditions for
environmentally-
induced conflicts
Vulnerable
locations