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Environment and Security
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as landslide dam outburst floods (LDOFs). One example is the
catastrophic flood in the Shohimardon valley (see the main text)
that killed nearly 100 people and destroyed many households. In
1999, the Asht Valley of Northern Tajikistan was hit by an LDOF
killing 19 people, and destroying or damaging several hundred
houses and elements of infrastructure
36
The mountain areas of Central Asia, including the Ferghana valley,
are seismically active. National Seismological Networks recorded
over 500 earthquakes of magnitude M>5 during the period 1900-
2000 only in Kyrgyzstan, mostly in the Ferghana valley and its
mountains. Destructive earthquakes took place in Namangan, Andi-
jan, Ferghana, Jalal-Abad, Isfara areas. Maximum seismic activity
has been observed in the Chatkal, Alai, and Ferghana mountains,
where 8-9 M events are possible (official national data)
Most territory of the Ferghana valley and adjacent mountains are
vulnerable to earthquakes with many small and large settlements
located in the epicentre zones of the potentially devastating
earthquakes (Isfara, Jalal-Abad, Osh, Kara-balta, etc). Some 30
settlements are threatened by both strong earthquakes and re-
sultant risks (mudslides, unstable ground
нестабильные участки
территории-поверхности,
etc). The earthquakes (M>7) that struck
the Ferghana valley and adjacent mountain territory from 1911
onwards caused several thousands casualties and millions of
dollars in economic loss (official national data)
37
Mudflows and floods are sometimes considered as the most
destructive natural events in the Ferghana valley. The high density
of the river network, steep slopes and degraded soil cover increase
mudflow risk, especially in the piedmont parts of the Ferghana
valley. Mudflows are formed due to interaction of hydro-meteoro-
logical and geological factors: cloudbursts, rapid snow melting,
steep slopes, easily washed grounds, etc. Almost all the piedmont
territory of the Ferghana valley is vulnerable to mudflows, including
radioactive waste sites. Over 1,000 river basins are estimated to
hold from moderate to high mudflow risk. In spring 1998, in Tajiki-
stan and Kyrgyzstan, torrential rains caused severe flooding with
over 20,000 people affected and many buildings and elements of
infrastructure destroyed. The years 2003 and 2004 also featured
flooding events in many areas, including the Syr Darya delta.
Winter ice and a failure to observe regional water use agreements
trigged floods along the Syr Darya River in Kyzyl-Orda, Southern
Kazakhstan in early 2004 official national data)
38
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are parties to UNECE Aarhus Conven-
tion on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-
making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters, but its
full-scale implementation on the local level will require considerable
resources and time
39
Though reliable statistical data are not available, a range of
anecdotal information confirm this trend
Notes