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water and wind erosion (UNEP/ENVSEC, 2012).
In Serbia and Montenegro, the excessive cutting of
trees in mountainous areas is among the causes of
increased erosion and flooding (ENVSEC and UNEP,
2012). However, the quality of land has improved in
certain areas. Parts of Montenegro have, rather than
degrading, become steadily more resilient since the
1950s, due to a significant increase in vegetation
across the country, leading to decreased run-off and
better infiltration (Nyssen
et al.
, 2012).
Food resources
All countries in the region have extremely diverse
natural potential for agricultural production,
ranging from fertile plains and river valleys to the
less productive karst, hilly and mountainous areas.
Agriculture remains an important part of the
economies of Western Balkan countries, despite the
growth of industry and service sectors. It employs
a large number of people, and occupies a large
proportion of land in each country. On average,
11 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) is
generated by the agricultural sector in the region
(the share of agriculture, forestry and fishing in
national GDPs for 2012 ranged from 5 per cent in
Croatia to 21.3 per cent in Albania; far above the
EU-27 average of 1.7 per cent) (FAO, 2014). Eighteen
per cent of the population (up to 41 per cent in
Albania) are employed in agriculture (World Bank,
2012), which is often the economic and development
engine for rural areas, where the proportion of
people employed in agriculture is much higher than
the national averages.
Agriculture is also one of the sectors most vulnerable/
sensitive to changes in climate, because the growth
cycles of animals and crops are closely bound to
climate and weather conditions. Most crops within
the region are rain-fed, with little irrigation or storage
capacity available. This makes crops susceptible to
rising temperatures, increasing evaporation and
changing precipitation patterns. In particular, the
increasing occurrence of droughts in the Balkans
has been identified as a key risk for agricultural
production (Giannakopoulos
et al.
, 2009; Gocic and
Trajkovic, 2014; Kos
et al.
, 2013).
The effects of climate change are already present
in the agriculture sector in the Western Balkans.
One regional analysis (REC, 2011) showed that
extreme events and higher intra-annual variability
of minimum temperature have led to a higher
probability of crop failure from frost damage.
Increases in the occurrence of hot days and declines
in rainfall or irrigation have also resulted in reduced
yields, while warmer winters can reduce the yields of
stone fruits that require winter chilling. On the other
hand, increased temperatures in spring and summer
have been shown to accelerate crop development for
short-cycle crops.
Future projections of climate change and its impact
on agriculture at the European level indicate that in
southern areas, including the Balkans, there will be
more losers than winners. Key risks include lower
harvestable yields, higher yield variability, and
reductions in area suitable for growing traditional
crops (Olesen and Bindi, 2002). Climate change in
the absence of adaptation measures will be largely
detrimental to agricultural production, including for
the most important agricultural products in terms of
production area and economic output, cereals and
fruits (predominantly grapes), of which Serbia is the
biggest producer (Mizik, 2010; Volk, 2010).
Significant declines in yield are predicted, according
to the limited studies available. Projections for
Albania indicate that the production of rain-fed
grapes and olives will decline by about 20 per cent
if there is 1.8°C warming. In FYR Macedonia, yield
declines of up to 50 per cent are expected for maize,
wheat, vegetables and grapes at 1.62°C warming in
the Mediterranean and continental areas (Sutton
et al.
, 2013). In Serbia, most yields are projected
to decline for rain-fed crops for the period 2030 to
2060, compared with present day (Giannakopoulos
et al.
, 2009). However, negative impacts of
climate change on yield could be reduced or even
reversed if adaptation options were implemented,
but these would require 40 per cent more water
(Giannakopoulos
et al.
, 2009).
Some alpine/mountainous regions, which are today
characterized by lower average temperatures and
shorter growing seasons than lowland areas, may
benefit. For example, wheat yields in alpine areas are
projected to increase considerably in Albania (by 24
per cent) and FYR Macedonia (50 per cent) due to
rising temperatures and the extension of the growing
season (Sutton
et al.
, 2013).
On the other hand, pasture yields and grassland
ecosystems for livestock grazing may be negatively
affected by sustained drought and heat, and decline
over large parts of the Western Balkans (World
Bank, 2014). Overall, the livestock sector is currently
under-represented in climate impact research for the
region and few modelling studies exist (World Bank,
2014), although there is evidence that livestock in
the region can be adversely affected by a greater heat
stress (REC, 2011). Declining quantity and quality
of feed could impact prices and lead to greater
fluctuations (Miraglia
et al.
, 2009). People in the
Western Balkans spend a relatively higher proportion
of their income on food. Between 35 and 50 per cent
of household expenditure is spent on food, drink and
tobacco, compared with 16 per cent in the EU-27,
making households more vulnerable to increasing
food prices (Volk
et al.
, 2010).