17
Predicted changes
Temperature
Predicting the climate in mountainous regions is
particularly difficult due to the complex topography.
Mountains create diverse microclimates, which
require high density of measurement. The distinct
local differences also require high-resolution climate
models, which are scarce. The consensus among the
existing models, however, predicts that the Western
Balkans will experience substantial warming
throughout the twenty-first century. This regional
warming will be higher than the worldwide average
(World Bank 2014). In Europe generally, warming
is expected to increase with altitude (Kotlarski
et
al.
, 2011), and some National Communications
(including those of Serbia and Montenegro) to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) also indicate that the highest
warming will occur within the mountainous regions
of these West Balkan countries.
According to a regional model based on the medium
emission scenario, the Eastern Mediterranean is
expected to be 3.5–7°C warmer by the end of the
twenty-first century, with the highest daytime increases
found in the Balkans (Lelieveld
et al.
, 2012). Another
model based on a high emission scenario predicts
5–8°C of warming in the Eastern Mediterranean in
summer, again predicting the Western Balkans to
receive the highest warming (Önol and Semazzi, 2009).
Extremely warm days are particularly damaging to
human life. What are currently regarded as extremely
hot summers will become the norm in 2100. By this
time, the warmest summer on record from 2007 will
become among the 5 per cent coldest (Lelieveld
et al.
,
2013). Days over 35°C are expected to increase by two
weeks in the Balkan Mountains and one month in the
region. The same model projects winter temperatures
to rise by 3°C.
Precipitation
TheWesternBalkanswillwitnessasignificantdecrease
in annual precipitation. However, projections for
precipitation are not as clear or regular as predictions
of temperature. The expected precipitation decrease
is more pronounced in high emission scenarios than
low-emission scenarios and is particularly strong in
the summer (Önol and Semazzi, 2009). In winter,
on the contrary, precipitation will increase in the
mountains and the region in general (Kotlarski
et al.
,
2011; Lelieveld
et al.
, 2012). The annual number of
rainy days could decrease by 10–20 days in a medium
emission scenario by the end of the twenty-first
century. No increase in extreme precipitation events
are expected in the region (Kharin
et al.
, 2013);
however, flooding is predicted to become more
frequent due to more precipitation in winter causing
spring floods (Islami
et al.
, 2009).
Heavy precipitation change
Projected changes from 1971-2000 to 2071-2100
Summer
Winter
25
%
15 35 45
5 -5 -15 -25
25
%
15 35 45
5 -5 -15 -25
Source:EEA,2014, “Projectedchanges inheavyprecipitation
inwinterandsummer”,
(eea.europa.eu,accessOctober2015).
500 km
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