Publication Name

Predicted changes

Temperature

Predicting the climate in mountainous regions is

particularly difficult due to the complex topography.

Mountains create diverse microclimates, which

require high density of measurement. The distinct

local differences also require high-resolution climate

models, which are scarce. The consensus among the

existing models, however, predicts that the Western

Balkans will experience substantial warming

throughout the twenty-first century. This regional

warming will be higher than the worldwide average

(World Bank 2014). In Europe generally, warming

is expected to increase with altitude (Kotlarski

al.

, 2011), and some National Communications

(including those of Serbia and Montenegro) to the

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change (UNFCCC) also indicate that the highest

warming will occur within the mountainous regions

of these West Balkan countries.

According to a regional model based on the medium

emission scenario, the Eastern Mediterranean is

expected to be 3.5–7°C warmer by the end of the

twenty-first century, with the highest daytime increases

found in the Balkans (Lelieveld

et al.

, 2012). Another

model based on a high emission scenario predicts

5–8°C of warming in the Eastern Mediterranean in

summer, again predicting the Western Balkans to

receive the highest warming (Önol and Semazzi, 2009).

Extremely warm days are particularly damaging to

human life. What are currently regarded as extremely

hot summers will become the norm in 2100. By this

time, the warmest summer on record from 2007 will

become among the 5 per cent coldest (Lelieveld

et al.

2013). Days over 35°C are expected to increase by two

weeks in the Balkan Mountains and one month in the

region. The same model projects winter temperatures

to rise by 3°C.

Precipitation

TheWesternBalkanswillwitnessasignificantdecrease

in annual precipitation. However, projections for

precipitation are not as clear or regular as predictions

of temperature. The expected precipitation decrease

is more pronounced in high emission scenarios than

low-emission scenarios and is particularly strong in

the summer (Önol and Semazzi, 2009). In winter,

on the contrary, precipitation will increase in the

mountains and the region in general (Kotlarski

et al.

2011; Lelieveld

et al.

, 2012). The annual number of

rainy days could decrease by 10–20 days in a medium

emission scenario by the end of the twenty-first

century. No increase in extreme precipitation events

are expected in the region (Kharin

et al.

, 2013);

however, flooding is predicted to become more

frequent due to more precipitation in winter causing

spring floods (Islami

et al.

, 2009).

Heavy precipitation change

Projected changes from 1971-2000 to 2071-2100

Summer

Winter

15 35 45

5 -5 -15 -25

15 35 45

5 -5 -15 -25

Source:EEA,2014, “Projectedchanges inheavyprecipitation

inwinterandsummer”,

(eea.europa.eu,

accessOctober2015).

500 km