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Observed changes in climate
Temperature
Temperatures have risen in the region in the last
fifty years, and every country in the region has
experienced warming with this trend accelerating
in the most recent decades (UNFCCC National
Communications). Summer is the season which
Trends and scenarios
has warmed the most (Kostopoulou and Jones,
2005). One important effect of this trend is that the
frequency and severity of temperature extremes
has also increased across the region. In Albania, for
example, the increase in the number of days over
40°C has been one of the clearest observed changes
in recent decades. Heatwaves across the region are
increasing in frequency and severity.
Precipitation
The observed changes in precipitation in the last fifty
years are not as pervasive or clear as the observed
warming. Generalizing about the observed climatic
trends is difficult due to the complex topography of
the mountains, especially as the Western Balkans
has two climatic areas – the Mediterranean and the
alpine/continental. However, overall the region has
received a decreasing amount of precipitation, with
Albania, Croatia and FYR Macedonia displaying
the clearest downward trend. The mountain region
of Gorski kotar in Croatia had the greatest decrease.
Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia
experienced mixed or unchanging precipitation
patterns. Droughts have become significantly more
common in Serbia, FYR Macedonia and Kosovo.
1
Within the region, the Dinaric Alps generally receive
the most precipitation (Lelieveld
et al.
, 2012). The
mountains in the Western Balkans are therefore
central to the flow of fresh water (Schneider
et al.
,
2013), as decreasing precipitation and increasing
evapotranspiration are combining to make the
region, and soils in general, drier.
Trends in annual
temperature
1960-2014
1960-2014
Trends in annual
precipitation
+0.5
ºC/decade
+0.4
+0.3
+0.2
+0.1
0.0
No data
Outside coverage
mm/decade
+
35
Wetter
Drier
0
-35
-70
Sources:EEA,2015, “Trends inannual temperatureacrossEurope”;
EEA,2014, “Trends inannualprecipitationacrossEurope”,
(eea.europa.eu,access October2015).
500 km
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Sunrise in the Dinaric Alps