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urban waste management, including uncontrolled
waste dumping and sewage ground dumping, can
also raise the level of ground-level ozone. This has
been documented in Pristina, Kosovo
1
(Faberi and
Ramadani, 2014).
Climate-related natural disasters and extreme events,
such as droughts, floods, and wildfires, also directly
affect people’s health and well-being. Apart from the
risk of being directly killed by floods, they (together
with droughts) often cause population displacement,
which can lead to outbreaks of infectious disease
due to inadequate public health infrastructure,
poor water and sanitation, overcrowding and lack
of shelter (McMichael
et al.
, 2006). Most recently,
incidents of Sarcoptes scabiei (a parasitic mite that
causes scabies) were reported in Tuzla Canton,
Bosnia and Herzegovina, following flooding
events in May 2015 (Elmedina Krilasevic, personal
communication, 2015). Warming temperatures are
also likely to lengthen the transmission season for
important vector-borne diseases (such as dengue
fever) and extend their range, thereby increasing the
occurrence of diseases.
The increased incidence and intensity of heatwaves are
expected to shift temperature-related mortality from
winter to summer, with fewer colder-related deaths
and more heat-related ones. In the long-term, the net
total number of climate-related deaths is expected to
increase for the period 2050–2100 (Ballester
et al.
,
2011). Albania and FYR Macedonia are considered
particularly exposed to heatwaves (UNEP/ENVSEC,
2012). In these countries, unprecedented heat
extremes could occur in 60 per cent of summer
months and droughts could increase by 20 per cent in
a 4°C warmer world (World Bank, 2014).
Over the last few decades, the climatic conditions in
the Balkans have become more suited to one of the
500 km
Projected extreme heat waves
2020-2052
RCP4.5 scenario*
2068-2100
RCP4.5 scenario*
2020-2052
RCP8.5 scenario**
2068-2100
RCP8.5 scenario**
15 12 33
63210
Number in 33 years
Frequency
15 12 33
63210
Number in 33 years
Frequency
15 12 33
63210
Number in 33 years
Frequency
15 12 33
63210
Number in 33 years
Frequency
Source:EEA,2015, “Numberofextremeheatwaves in futureclimatesunder
twodi erentclimate forcingscenarios”,
(eea.europa.eu,accessOctober2015).
*RCP 4.5 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas emissions peak around 2040, then decline.
**RCP 8.5 scenario considers that emmissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century.
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