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Similarly to agriculture, tourism depends on

natural conditions to attract visitors – especially in

coastal and mountain regions. Climate change is

projected to have substantial impacts on sensitive

mountain environments, with implications for

the attractiveness of mountain environments for

tourism and the occurrence of natural hazards (JRC,

2009). Mountain ski resorts are among the tourism

sectors considered most at risk, as the duration of

the snow season is expected to decrease significantly

in the future (see Water chapter 2.2.1 above). The

concentration of activities within a smaller surface

area and a shorter period of the year could also place

more pressure on sensitive mountain ecosystems.

Coastal regions are also considered to be highly

vulnerable to climatic conditions, with most visitors

concentrated during between two and three summer

months: the hottest periods of the year. As countries

bordering the Adriatic Sea, Croatia, Montenegro and

Albania

can be considered highly sensitive to climate

change, which could impact their tourism sectors

in particular. In fact, the Mediterranean region as

a whole is expected to become less attractive due

to drought and heatwaves, which could raise the

temperatures above the comfort zone, and lead to

a general scarcity of water (European Commission,

2009). On the other hand, increasing temperatures

on the coast may favour tourism in hilly and

mountainous areas, and shift coastal tourism towards

the end of spring and the beginning of autumn

(EU Adaptation Platform). Furthermore, tourists

normally visiting “hotter” countries such as Greece

may move further north to the Balkan countries for

their holidays.

There are a number of other wide-ranging, potential

indirect climate impacts on tourism within the

region. River discharge and lake water levels, fresh

water quality and temperature may be impacted,

and karst aquifers may be particularly vulnerable.

Changes or loss in biodiversity, altered agricultural

production (e.g. wine tourism), increasing natural

hazards (e.g. landslides and wildfires) and the

increasing incidence of vector-borne diseases may

all impact tourism to varying degrees. Mitigation

policies that seek to reduce GHG emissions will

lead to an increase in transport costs and may have

an effect on tourists’ travel patterns. However, the

tourism industry will undoubtedly continue to be a

growth sector in the region, despite the challenges of

climate change.

Human health

While warmer temperatures may bring some

localized benefits, including fewer winter deaths

in temperate climates, overall the effects of climate

change on human health are expected to be negative

worldwide (WHO, 2014). Despite the limited

modelling of climate change impacts on human

health in the Western Balkans, clear risks emerge;

many of which are already manifesting themselves.

Heat extremes contribute directly to deaths from

cardiovascular and respiratory disease, particularly

among elderly people, with heat stress triggering

heart attacks and strokes. Warmer air temperatures

and heatwaves can also worsen air pollution and the

concentrations of ground-level ozone. Even small

increases in ground-level ozone can have an impact

on health, including lung inflammation, decreased

lung function, and an increase in asthma attacks. Poor

500 000

1 000 000

1 500 000

2 000 000

Floods

Storms

Extreme

temperature

Wildfires

Droughts

2 500 000

3 000 000

3 500 000

4 000 000

4 500 000

5 000 000

Albania

Croatia

FYR

Macedonia

Montenegro*

Serbia

Bosnia

and Herzegovina

Total a ected people from 2000 to 2015

Climate-related disasters

*Data for Montenegro available from 2007 onwards.

Source:The InternationalDisasterDatabase

(emdata.be,

accessOctober2015).

Data not available for Kosovo (this designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/99 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo declaration of independence).