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hydropower could decrease by 15–35 per cent in a
4°C world (Pasicko
et al.
, 2012). Given that severe
decreases of up to 15 per cent in annual discharge
are expected across the Western Balkans in a 2°C
world, similar reductions in hydropower generation
are possible elsewhere.
From the demand side, the trend of warmer winter
temperatures and even hotter summers are expected
to flatten the electricity consumption profile, as the
demand for cooling energy rises and heat energy
declines (UNEP/ENVSEC, 2012). Electricity systems
may strain to meet the heavier demands for air
conditioning, particularly if they rely on hydropower
(World Bank, 2009).
Energy consumption in the Western Balkans has
already increased by 53 per cent
6
between 1995
and 2005, and demand is expected to grow by a
further 34 per cent from 2006 to 2030 (EEA, 2008).
Economic development, population growth and
climate impacts (decreased production and power
generation disruption) may together contribute to
a rise in electricity prices and the risk of electricity
shortages in the region (McDermott &Nielsen 2014).
Transport, infrastructure and
communication
In the Western Balkans region, achieving efficient
and modern internal transport networks and
infrastructure and communication networks between
the region’s countries will be a key enabler of economic
growth and transition. This is a political priority of
the countries themselves and the European Union,
because it is an important means of improving links
across the region and integrating the countries in the
area into the political and economic mainstream of
Europe (Matsoukis, 2008). A series of infrastructure
projects are planned, including through funding
from the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance
(IPA) funds, which will link up capitals, major cities
and airports in the region, enabling faster economic
progress by 2030.
Although the transport system has improved over
the years, the standards are considerably lower
than those of Europe. Among the challenges, road
congestion in and around cities, ageing vehicles, poor
vehicle maintenance, and the variable condition of
roads all contribute to poor air quality. Pressure on
the road networks has also increased, with freight
transport almost doubling between 2001 and 2006,
and public transport within and between cities
considered to be inadequate (UNEP/ENVSEC,
2012). Transport accounts for almost a quarter of
the global CO
2
emissions. While the figure is lower
for the Western Balkans region, at approximately
14 per cent, reflecting the relatively low level of car
ownership, the transport sector’s share of emissions
is growing in line with socioeconomic development.
This represents a key challenge for the region.
The vulnerability of transport infrastructures to
climate change is well understood. For example,
extreme events (flooding, heatwaves, forest fires and
storms) can weaken or damage infrastructure and
cause disruptions. Higher temperatures can cause
pavements to soften and expand, reducing the lifetime
Đurđevića Tara Bridge, Durmitor National Park, Montenegro