40 / 173
2018 Annual Economic and Financial Review
ANGUILLA
______________________________________________________________________________
30
Eastern Caribbean Central Bank
discipline exercised by the 15-member OPEC
cartel and allied oil-producing nations,
including Russia, to adjust production levels
to mitigate any negative effects from sanctions
imposed by the USA on Iran, should have a
cooling effect on prices. In addition, the
continued buoyancy of shale oil production in
the United States of America, is expected to
contain global oil price increases.
The fiscal operations of the central
government are expected to generate a
larger overall surplus in 2019.
On the
recurrent side, the central government is
projected to record a surplus, largely
influenced by an increase in tax revenues from
the vital tourism industry, as it returns to
normal operations. Greater activity in the
tourism industry is broadly expected to
positively impact wholesale and retail trade,
as well as the transport, storage and
communications sectors, thus providing an
avenue for additional revenue for the
government. Import duty receipts are also
expected to strengthen further, in line with
increased activity in the tourism, construction
and wholesale and retail industries.
Additionally, the divestiture of government
shares in the Anguilla Electricity Company
(ANGLEC) is expected to be finalised in 2019
and provide capital revenue of approximately
$24.0m to the government. Recurrent
expenditures, on the other hand, are expected
to remain at or slightly above the 2018 levels,
as no extraordinary increase in outlays is
anticipated.
Capital expenditure is projected to increase,
consistent with the level of grants to be
provided by the UK Government as part of its
three-year assistance package (EC$220.0m)
for Anguilla. Given that less than half of the
allotted $68.3m was utilised in 2018, a surge
in capital expenditure is anticipated in 2019,
possibly exceeding $100.0m. The rate of
implementation of capital projects will largely
depend on the tendering process and the rate
at which projects can be approved by the
Executive Council. In an effort to streamline
the process and achieve maximum efficiency,
the UK Government has agreed to provide
consultants to assist with the roll-out of
projects. On the external front, the
merchandise trade deficit is expected to
widen, consistent with the projected increase
in visitor arrivals, as well as the ramping up
of public sector capital projects. Relatedly,
gross inflows from travel are projected to
rebound, broadly in line with increased
domestic capacity.