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2018 Annual Economic and Financial Review ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
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Eastern Caribbean Central Bank
Redevelopment and Enhancement Project, the
Government Affordable Housing Project, the
reconstruction of public infrastructure and
private homes on Barbuda and investments in
the accommodation sector. The Consumer
Price Index will likely remain subdued, as
global oil prices are expected to moderate in
2019.
According to the 2019 National Budget
Address, the fiscal situation is expected to
improve marginally. An overall fiscal deficit
of $78.8m is estimated for 2019, lower than
the provisional deficit of $101.5m obtained in
2018. Strengthening revenue through
improved tax collection both at the border and
inland revenue and the implementation of the
Tax Administration and Procedures Act
(TAPA) are expected to yield a bump in
receipts. Furthermore, the announced
reduction in fiscal concessions, if
implemented, will augur well for revenue
collections. Another positive development is
that the notable surge in CIP applications since
the reduction in the investment required for
the National Development Fund, is expected
to continue in 2019. On the expenditure side,
current expenditure is likely to stabilize as the
government honoured its salaries and wages
obligation to public sector employees, which
was the main reason for the escalation in that
category of expenditure in 2018. Capital
expenditure will likely exceed the amount
expended in 2018 as government expedites the
road projects in Antigua and continues the
rehabilitative works and airport infrastructure
in Barbuda.
In the external sector, the merchandise trade
deficit is projected to widen due to higher
import payments to support construction
activity and tourism related activities. Gross
travel receipts are expected to be stronger than
that of 2018, contingent on the forecast for
increased tourism activity.
While the outlook for the Antigua and
Barbuda economy is broadly positive, there
are a number of downside risks that could
hinder the realization of this forecast.
Foremost is lower than anticipated global
economic growth due to trade protectionist
policies, heightened geopolitical tensions and
the continued uncertainty of Brexit. Those
developments could restrain the demand for
touristic travel and reduce foreign direct
investment inflows, thus having an adverse
effect on the pace of economic activity in
Antigua and Barbuda.
The country is also highly vulnerable to
meteorological disasters, which can cause